Certainty is comforting. It's convenient. In a confusing world, it's nice to check off a box and move on to the next question.
For months, Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been penciled in as the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. He's separated himself from the pack in a weak quarterback class and piloted a Big Ten juggernaut to a magical College Football Playoff run.
Now, his lone challenger will be on the opposing sideline Friday night. Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore is the consensus QB2, flaunting enticing upside and a flurry of high-level throws. Mendoza will likely remain the favorite after the semifinal festivities, but it's worth being open-minded about how this quarterback class could develop.
Can Dante Moore become QB1?
A small segment of evaluators will have Moore as their top-ranked passer in this class. That's largely derived from a longer developmental runway at the next level and the idea that he's more physically talented than the cerebral Mendoza. Neither idea is necessarily off base.
However, it's fair to push back on the binary simplification of Moore being a high-ceiling, low-floor passer, especially when comparing him to the Heisman-winning Hoosier. He certainly didn't look like an athletic dual threat against the Red Raiders. In a game won by the Ducks' defense, Moore played the part of a game manager -- a tag often used to discredit Mendoza.
Moore passed the test against Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. He didn't ace it. Against Indiana, he won't have as many Sunday players hunting him in the pocket, but the likelihood of a negative game script will increase tenfold. That's what makes Friday night so important.
With so much talent on both sidelines, this Big Ten clash of titans feels like it will come down to the quarterbacks. What happens if Moore has a statement game against the best team in the country? What if Mendoza wilts against elite competition? Fair or not, both are distinct possibilities, and either one could add to the conversation that Moore is the best player in the class.
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As (functionally) a one-year starter, Moore has a wider range of outcomes than Mendoza. It wouldn't be surprising if a handful of teams prefer his theoretical upside, and a strong semifinal would move the needle for teams on the fence.
I remain unconvinced. The College Football Playoff is rife with storylines and storybook endings, and it makes narrative sense that Moore toppling the Hoosiers would make his case for going first overall.
Our march toward the NFL Draft may be linear. His evaluation isn't. There's a body of work that suggests that Moore is raw, and his upside isn't meaningfully better than Mendoza's. I suspect this is a matter of "toolflation," where average-to-above-average physical traits get exaggerated in the name of pre-draft hype. Moore has been excellent downfield, but he's not stepping into the NFL as one of its best field-stretchers. He's probably not a top-16 athlete, either.
That combination makes the unpolished parts of his game that much scarier. He can't find answers with his legs like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels did as rookies. And if his inexperience lends itself to a redshirt rookie season (no judgment there), I don't know if he'll be worth the wait -- particularly with the expectations of a top-five pick.
I like the C.J. Stroud comparison that's been thrown around a bunch, but more so as a right-tailed outcome, not his median. He'll have the opportunity to change that narrative against Indiana, and enough high-level flashes could change the tune. In any event, the football world is going to overreact to Moore's performance, especially if Mendoza gives fans any reason to second-guess their optimism.
It's best to remember how one feels about Moore before kickoff. He can absolutely make his case for QB1. Completely rewriting the narrative, though, is a much tougher task. It's much more likely that Moore solidifies his spot as a strong top-five pick than overtaking Mendoza outright. Watching him try do so should make for an excellent semifinal.
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