Whatever news developed regarding the Colts’ preference at quarterback, Anthony Richardson was going to be surrounded by reporters wielding iPhones, digital recorders and stick microphones, but it would have been understandable if he weren’t adequately prepared for this moment.
Richardson found out Tuesday he’d lost his job to someone else’s first-round failure.
“I think you’ve got to respect the decision,” Richardson said, gracefully dealing with a most challenging circumstance.
Richardson was the No. 3 overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Colts’ previous top-5 QB picks were named Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, guys selected for a combined 16 Pro Bowls and winners of 68 percent of their starts. That’s what Indianapolis has come to expect when they spend this degree of capital on someone to run their offense.
Perhaps that’s unrealistic in today’s NFL, where a majority of the most prominently drafted quarterbacks flop. That includes Daniel Jones, the Giants reject who won the Colts’ job over Richardson during this past month’s training camp.
Whether it’s lousy evaluation or terrible development – or both – NFL teams aren’t finding the best quarterbacks in the places most anyone would look.
Yeah, you needed to have the No. 1 overall pick to wind up with Joe Burrow, which was the Bengals’ good fortune back in 2020, but nine of the 17 QBs chosen in the first five picks from 2013-22 could comfortably be described as flops for the teams that selected them, and three others (Tua Tagavailoa with the Dolphins, Trevor Lawrence with the Jaguars and Bryce Young with the Panthers) still could end up in that category.
Only seven of them still are with the original teams, only six have career records better than two games over .500 and only Burrow and Jared Goff have played in the Super Bowl and won more than two playoff games.
When Richardson was drafted, ESPN talk performer Pat McAfee shouted, “I’m so pumped!” But the New York Post headline called it a “shocker”. One AFC scout told ESPN in advance of the draft he didn’t know if Richardson’s accuracy issues could be fixed. Another scout pointed out those issues – Richardson completed just 53.8 percent of his passes in his only full season as a starter – were because his footwork was so poor.
“There’s no way around it. The accuracy is bad,” that scout said in an ESPN story compiling feedback on the uber talented, uber polarizing prospect. “There are so many scouts who think because Josh Allen cleaned up his stuff that Richardson and others can, too. I still think Allen is an outlier, not the rule.”
Jones was the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, but he lost 65 percent of his starts in a half-dozen seasons in New York and was released last season, not even halfway through a 4-year, $120 million contract. He will open for the Colts in Week 1 against the Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium.
“They feel like he’s a better fit for the team, a better fit for the outcome of us winning,” Richardson told reporters. “So you’ve got to respect that and just keep working. It doesn’t say that I haven’t improved. I’m proud of the improvement I’ve made.”
Part of the issue could be the rush to maximize the investment of a first-round draft pick. Of the nine top-5 flops we mentioned earlier, seven of them started the majority of games as rookies and six were opening day starters.
Eleven different quarterbacks have started in conference championship games over the past five seasons, and eight of them did not open their rookie seasons as starters. Several of those players – including some of the most successful in league history – barely played their in their first years. Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers sat and learned. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson started less than half the 2018 season, and reigning Super Bowl champion Jalen Hurts was in charge for just four games.
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If ever there were a quarterback whose development appeared to demand patience, it would be Richardson. In his junior (and final) year at Florida, ESPN Stats rated less than 70 percent of his throws as catchable, which ranked 110th out of 124 quarterbacks. And still first-time head coach Shane Steichen put him out there against the Jaguars, where he took four sacks, threw one interception and was QB of record for a 31-21 defeat. Richardson threw 25 or fewer passes in each of his next three starts, then was lost for the season with a shoulder injury.
He played more games last season, but still missed plenty because of injury, and the only time all year he completed more than half of an NFL-standard number of throws was a 20-of-30 effort in a one-point win against the Jets.
Steichen is in his third season as head coach without a playoff appearance on his record, and GM Chris Ballard – who made the Richardson pick – has been in charge eight years and has overseen six teams that missed the postseason. The urgency to succeed now is of far greater importance than justifying a draft pick, and they find Jones to be worthy of trust even though he’s thrown close to as many interceptions (47) as touchdowns (70) in his career.
It may not be too late for Richardson to fulfill the promise his dynamism suggested at the NFL Combine workout two years back. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold found success after their first teams (and second, and third) gave up on them. It’s unlikely those heights will be reached with the Colts, and they’ll be mostly to blame.
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