Since the moment he took the field as a freshman for Alabama, safety Caleb Downs had been considered one of the best players in the sport. He aced every test Nick Saban threw at him, transferred to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and continued to dominate.
If he was a receiver, we'd call him Jeremiah Smith. If he lined up as an edge rusher, we'd be talking about a Jadeveon Clowney-level prospect.
But Downs was handed the misfortune of playing safety, sentencing himself to positional value discourse and a decreased chance of being a top-five pick in April. After declaring for the NFL Draft on Wednesday, Downs hopes NFL decision-makers can look past the positional tag next to his name.
Caleb Downs is headed to the NFL
Downs announced his decision on Wednesday, joining receiver Carnell Tate and seemingly his entire defense on the way to the professional ranks.
Arvell Reese caught the spotlight this autumn, and Sonny Styles has long been a formidable challenger. Even so, it's hard to call either a better player than Downs, whose athleticism, versatility, and instincts have made him the best safety in the class, with little competition.
Is he the best prospect, though? His draft stock may say otherwise.
Fair or not, positional value has left a mark on how the NFL operates. The last safety to be taken in the top 10 was Jamal Adams, who went sixth overall in 2017. The years since have sent Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kyle Hamilton, and Brian Branch to the NFL. No dice. Each of them was a consensus first-round pick; Fitzpatrick and Hamilton were viewed as blue-chip prospects. The league still hesitated.
It's worth noting that the game has changed since 2018, when the smartest among us laughed at the New York Giants for taking a running back with the No. 2 pick. Still, Notre Dame star Jeremiyah Love won't be a top-five selection.
The same is likely true of Downs. However, a couple of factors could help Ohio State's superstar break the trend destining him to the middle of Round 1. The offensive game is more predicated on offenses getting bigger, staying ahead of the chains when defenses are too small and going over the top when they are too committed to stopping the run.
That makes Downs' skill set all the more valuable. Teams that can stop the run out of nickel have a significant advantage, and Downs has the willingness and physicality to play downhill and wreak havoc against the run. His ability to be an early-down force while also holding his own as a centerfielder is valuable, and he checks more boxes than the safeties who came before him with freakish measurables and strong pre-draft testing marks.
Downs is legitimately one of the best prospects in this class and one of the top collegiate safeties in recent memory. While the NFL isn't guaranteed to honor that, he may be able to distance himself enough from other top prospects to force the issue.
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Fernando Mendoza will be penciled in as the 1.01 for the foreseeable future. Do we really know who is coming off the board next? Dante Moore has significant questions to answer in the coming weeks. The offensive tackle class had a turbulent season. Drafting Carnell Tate or Makai Lemon still feels like a reach in the top five, and there are holes in many of the top edge-rushing profiles.
In a year with few blue-chip prospects and more late-first-rounders than top-10 standouts, Downs is more likely to convince a team to spurn positional value. Few, if any, prospects offer the same combination of ceiling and floor. None has mastered Nick Saban and Matt Patricia's defenses without as much as a hiccup. Downs should test well, has consistently produced, and will hit the necessary physical.
Positional value matters, but as the calculus changes in an underwhelming class, Downs' case grows stronger. Expect some team to come to their senses early enough to break this decade-long trend.
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