The New York Jets are in the middle of a very forgettable 2025 season. Justin Fields was a bust, the defense has been stripped of its top talent in trades and the overall vibes in year one for Aaron Glenn have been far from ideal.
But what makes this season even worse than it already is is that the team's wins in the middle of the season have all but guaranteed they cannot land the first overall pick in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft.
However, that's not certain just yet.
According to Seth Walder of ESPN, he has the Jets down at just 0.1 percent chance of landing the top pick in the draft. There's a chance, but it's incredibly unlikely.
Jets have just 0.1 percent chance of nabbing No. 1 overall pick in 2026 NFL Draft
The Jets are at 0.1 percent, while the Las Vegas Raiders are at 89.2 percent and the New York Giants are at 10.7 percent. No other team in the NFL is listed as having a chance for the top pick in the NFL Draft.
But how can the Jets, at 3-13, get the top pick from the Raiders, who are 2-14? Well, for starters, the Jets would need to lose in Week 18 to the Buffalo Bills, and the Raiders would need to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18.
Those aren't that outlandish of possibilities, but even that won't be enough for the Jets to secure the top pick in the NFL Draft.
The Jets, after getting a loss and a Raiders win, would need a lot of other games to go their way to have a weaker strength of schedule than the Raiders.
That could entail the Giants beating the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Cleveland Browns beating the Cincinnati Bengals and other upsets across the NFL.
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Those aren't the only matchups that would need to go the Jets' way, either, as almost every single game in Week 18, depending on who the Jets and Raiders both played, would need to go the Jets' way to make the Raiders' strength-of-schedule harder than the Jets.
The team with the weakest strength of schedule gets the NFL Draft tiebreaker, and currently, the Raiders have that edge. Darren Mougey needs a lot of help to land that top pick.
To say the Jets need a miracle to secure the number 1 overall pick would be an understatement. They're likely to land a top-three pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but more likely than not, it'd end up being the second overall pick.
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