Patriots playoff picture: Updated chances for New England to make 2025 NFL postseason in Week 15

Griffin Missant

Patriots playoff picture: Updated chances for New England to make 2025 NFL postseason in Week 15 image

The NFL saw only a few seasons of the New England Patriots as bottom-feeders, and now they’re back atop the AFC.

There’s no other way to put it: Mike Vrabel was the perfect hire for an organization lacking energy and identity. Immediately, there was not just a shift in the locker room, but a shift in expectations as well.

Vrabel set a standard, which is a key reason his team is where it is. Another factor is second-year quarterback Drake Maye, playing at a true MVP level. The young player from North Carolina has started to emerge as a top-end NFL quarterback.

The fans in Foxborough need to mourn the ghost of Tom Brady no more, but unlike those days, the Buffalo Bills are a daunting foe.

Josh Allen and his team will storm into Gillette Stadium with the goal of reclaiming their dominance in the AFC East. These teams met in Week 5 in Buffalo, where the Patriots emerged victorious.

Here’s more on the Patriots’ 2025-26 postseason chances as they head into their AFC matchup with the Buffalo Bills.

MORE WEEK 15 NFL:

Patriots playoff picture

As we enter Week 15, New England has its grasp on the No. 2 seed in the AFC. This is not just because of their dominant 11-2 record, but also because they're leading the AFC East division. 

Heading into their duel, the Patriots hold a two-game lead over the Bills. If New England wins and sweeps Buffalo, they would definitely crown themselves AFC East Champions.

As it stands, Next Gen Stats gives the Patriots an above-99 % chance of making the playoffs. 

Here is how the AFC playoff picture looks heading into Week 15. The first four seeds are the division leaders.

RankTeamRecord
1Denver Broncos11-2
2New England Patriots11-2
3Jacksonville Jaguars9-4
4Pittsburgh Steelers7-6
5Los Angeles Chargers9-4
6Buffalo Bills9-4
7Houston Texans8-5
8Indianapolis Colts8-5
9Baltimore Ravens6-7
10Kansas City Chiefs6-7
11Miami Dolphins6-7
12Cincinnati Bengals4-9
13New York Jets3-10
14Cleveland Browns3-10
15Las Vegas Raiders2-11
16Tennessee Titans2-11

MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture after Week 14 results

AFC East standings

TeamRecord
New England Patriots11-2
Buffalo Bills9-4
Miami Dolphins6-7
New York Jets 3-10

The Patriots are undoubtedly going to be a playoff team; it's uncertain how they'll do it. As of now, they would make the postseason because of their lead in the AFC East. However, even if Buffalo were to overtake them, New England would still be a top Wild Card team.

Patriots remaining schedule

Once the Patriots get through Buffalo in Week 15, they will be the heavy favorite in two of the three remaining. Regardless of how poorly the Baltimore Ravens have played, Lamar Jackson poses a threat to anyone.

Then New England closes their season with games against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, both of which they should win comfortably.

Here is a look at New England's remaining schedule.

WeekOpponent
16at Ravens
17at Jets
18vs. Dolphins
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