Excitement has been building around the Minnesota Vikings, and it should only continue to build now that the team’s full 2025 regular-season schedule has been released.
Heck, well-known sports personality Kay Adams recently gushed over her interview with quarterback J.J. McCarthy and picked Minnesota to win the Super Bowl.
The number-crunching computers, however, are predicting an entirely different outcome.
Vikings fans will want to hold their nose when reading Cynthia Frelund’s early 2025 projections for all 32 teams. Frelund, who’s one of the best in the business when it comes to handicapping games for NFL Network, ran one million simulations for all 272 regular-season games, and her model has Minnesota missing the NFC playoffs:
Guys, it’s fortunate that the Vikings are playing back-to-back games abroad, The Jags have done it in each of the last two seasons, going 3-1 in those games, and it could bode well for Minnesota, depending on when the Browns arrive in England, as that component does impact win potential. The Vikings' season largely hinges on how new starting QB J.J. McCarthy will perform -- not their schedule.
Minnesota Vikings 2025 odds and projections
- Win Total Projection: 8.7
- Win Total: over 8.5 (+125)
- Make Playoffs: +130
- Win Division: +360
- Win Conference: +1200
- Win Super Bowl: +2800
— NFL Network Analytics
The NFL certainly did the Vikings no favors with their early-season schedule, though the international stretch was welcomed by owner Mark Wilf and the team. McCarthy’s first two starts will come in prime time, starting with a Monday night trip to Soldier Field for what will be a highly-billed matchup vs. Caleb Williams and the Bears. Turning around on a short week for a Sunday night home opener against Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons will be another test for Minnesota’s 22-year-old QB.
As for discounting the Vikings' win total projection due to back-to-back games overseas? It appears even the computers are overreacting to Minnesota’s games in Ireland (Week 4) and London (Week 5).
The analytics might not agree, and being away from the team facilities and routine definitely adds a degree of difficulty for a young quarterback, but Minnesota’s international stretch comes with some hidden advantages. If the Vikings can win those two neutral-site games against a pair of AFC North teams — the Steelers and Browns — who are yet to name a starting quarterback for Week 1, they’ll emerge from their Week 6 bye in fine shape, with six of their final 12 games at U.S. Bank Stadium.
To Frelund’s point, so much of this comes down to McCarthy and how coach Kevin O’Connell and Co. manage him early in the season. The Vikings won 14 games last season and made serious improvements in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. Is switching from Sam Darnold to McCarthy really worth 4.5 wins?
With one of the best coaching staffs in football and a stacked roster overall, we’ll take the over 8.5 wins with confidence here.
MORE VIKINGS NEWS:
- Schedule breakdown: NFL to feature J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota prominently with 7 marquee games
- Vikings fans react to NFL's wild international schedule: ‘Fire Roger'
- Vikings Hall of Famer offers to mentor first-round rookie Donovan Jackson