Vikings 2025 win-loss predictions: Are experts sleeping on J.J. McCarthy and Minnesota?

Ryan OLeary

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Vikings 2025 win-loss predictions: Are experts sleeping on J.J. McCarthy and Minnesota? image

The NFL’s 2025 regular-season schedule is out and the predictions are already trickling in.

One early verdict? Experts aren’t yet ready to go all-in on the Minnesota Vikings and first-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

To be fair, Minnesota’s first five weeks of the season are littered with challenges, including four nationally televised games and consecutive matchups overseas. As ESPN’s Kevin Seifert put it: “If the Vikings can make it to their Week 6 bye with their wits about them, McCarthy will have received the most intense indoctrination imaginable.”

MORE: Vikings predicted to miss playoffs in Cynthia Frelund’s early 2025 projections for NFL Network

The Vikings’ 2025 schedule is no cakewalk, even with just seven true road games. It’s hard to ignore Minnesota’s rough stretch from Weeks 12 through 16, which includes four road games in a span of five weeks.

With all that said, the Vikings are loaded on both sides of the football thanks to GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s work in free agency. McCarthy will step into an excellent situation in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and Brian Flores is back to manage what was one of the NFL’s top playmaking defenses in 2024.

After ripping off 14 wins with Sam Darnold under center in 2024, Minnesota should be back in the mix once again in the NFC. The experts are predicting a few steps back, however. Here’s what they’re saying as of mid-May:

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Minnesota Vikings 2025 win-loss predictions 

  • Daniel Chavkin, The Sporting News: 10-7

Chavkin: “The Vikings will have a tough time reaching the heights of last year, especially considering J.J. McCarthy will be playing in his first NFL games as the team's starting quarterback. However, with a talented roster and one of the best coaching staffs in the league, Minnesota should once again compete for a playoff spot.”

Camenker: “The Vikings should compete for the NFC North title once again. That said, they may log fewer wins this season as the whole division faces a much tougher schedule. Minnesota has the fifth-hardest projected schedule in 2025, per Sharp Football Analysis. That's not only because of the strength of the NFC North; it's also because the division is set to play the AFC North and NFC East, two of the league's toughest divisions, as part of the NFL's rotating schedule.”

Moton: "The Vikings have the supporting cast to prop up a young quarterback, and their defense can help them win low-scoring games, but this team will regress with a first-year starter under center, perhaps more than most would expect after a 14-win campaign. On the road, McCarthy will face stout defenses within the NFC North and in Pittsburgh, Seattle and Los Angeles. Chargers lead skipper Jim Harbaugh coached him at Michigan and knows his weaknesses. The Vikings come back to earth and drop out of the playoff picture in 2025."

Vitali: "The best thing the Vikings may have done last year is lose to the Lions in the final game of the season. It took them from first place in the division (and having to play a first-place schedule) to the wild-card round, even with 14 wins. That should pay off if young quarterback J.J. McCarthy struggles a bit in his first season, which is why I’ve predicted a bit of a regression from last year. It’s just a reality when you have a first-time signal-caller, especially one coming off injury. In some ways, however, Minnesota has "quarterback-proofed" its team, solidifying every major position on both sides of the ball to make sure it can withstand McCarthy's learning curve. The Vikings also have the benefit of QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell leading McCarthy’s development. If all goes well, this will be O’Connell’s greatest achievement yet, and the Vikings will be vying for the top of the league’s toughest division in 2025.”

Manzano: “McCarthy will have plenty of pressure on and off the field, with his first two career starts scheduled to be in prime time. First, a Monday night road date with the Bears, followed by a Sunday night home meeting against the Falcons. However, McCarthy could be set up for early success, operating a talented offense that includes Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.”

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Ryan OLeary

Ryan O'Leary has spent his entire professional career in sports multimedia, working as journalist, editor, podcaster, and in live events as a content manager and show emcee. His career highlights include working as a podcast host and audio editor for USA TODAY Sports Media Group, where he led a series of NFL podcasts for the company’s top-performing NFL sites. A born and raised New Englander, Ryan’s career kicked-off in newspapers after graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a degree in journalism. He developed an affinity for small-town youth, high school and college sports, while also realizing his childhood dream of covering the Patriots in multiple AFC Championship Games. Ryan enjoys kicking it with family and friends, beating his dad and brother in chess, and arguing with anyone crazy enough to insist that Tom Brady isn’t the GOAT.