There might not be a hotter team in the NFL over the last four or so weeks than the Miami Dolphins. Rattling off four straight wins and five wins in their last six games, the Dolphins are 6-7 and have kept their playoff hopes alive.
But, how alive are those odds really? The Dolphins are still a few games back of a playoff spot and will not only need to win out but also get some help to sneak in.
NFL insider Ari Bhanpuri revealed the Dolphins' playoff odds entering Week 15 before their pivotal Monday Night Football matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their odds aren't great, but as Jim Carrey said in Dumb and Dumber, "so you're telling me there's a chance."
Dolphins' playoff odds entering Week 15 vs. Steelers revealed
Bhanpuri lists the Dolphins' playoff odds as less than one percent. A loss would keep their odds below one percent, but even if they win over the Steelers on Monday Night, their odds would only just barely surpass one percent.
"You know you've dug yourself a hole when you've won five of six, including four in a row, and you still can't get over the 1 percent hump." Bhanpuri writes.
Miami is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and their four-game winning streak, which has featured blowouts against the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, is a huge reason why they're even alive in the playoff race.
The Dolphins lost six of their first seven games, which included key losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, two teams that would have the tie-breaker for a Wild Card spot.
While they are still alive, the Dolphins' playoff odds won't change a whole lot this week based on the result of their game. It's a step in the right direction, but they would still have a lot of work to do.
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"Even a Miami win this weekend at Pittsburgh, which would draw both teams even at 7-7 in the standings," Bahnpuri writes, "would deal significantly more damage to the Steelers' playoff probability (from 67% to 56%) than it would boost the Dolphins' odds (.048% to 1.48%)."
With four weeks left this season, Mike McDaniel and the revitalized Dolphins team have matchups against the Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the New England Patriots.
All of those are winnable matchups, including the Patriots matchup in New England to finish the season. They might have clinched their playoff seeding by that point, and could rest some starters, paving the way for the Dolphins to secure an easier win.
Amid the Dolphins' four-game winning streak, which might've saved McDaniel his job for 2026, Miami has stayed alive in the playoff hunt. A lot needs to go their way, but as things currently stand, they're still alive despite their playoff odds hovering around 1 percent.
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