The Las Vegas Raiders have not had the season they hoped for.
Geno Smith has thrown a dozen interceptions, and the Raiders head into Week 11 with a 2-7 record. They really have no choice but to start looking ahead to next season.
The logical thought is that Smith is a goner, but it's really not that simple.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell broke down Smith's future in a new article on Thursday, and he actually sees a path where Smith winds up as the backup.
Here's how he explains it:
Does that mean Smith's future is elsewhere in 2026? Not necessarily. The Raiders are already on the hook for $18.5 million of what Smith is owed next year, a number that he won't top if he's released and hits free agency. That might as well be a sunk cost for what it took to acquire Smith and pay him in 2025, which will turn out to be one year as the starter at $58.5 million.
The question for the Raiders is whether they'd want to pay an additional $8 million to keep Smith as their backup in 2026. He was already a well-established and respected backup before getting his opportunity to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle, and Smith could probably expect to land a contract in that price range if he hit free agency to serve as a backup or potential bridge starter to a young quarterback somewhere else. The Raiders probably would be interested in someone like Smith if they plan to draft a quarterback in 2026 anyway, so it wouldn't be too foolish to just pay the additional $8 million and hold onto the guy they already know.
If the Raiders want to try trading Smith, they'd have to get creative. Wilder things have happened, but I can't imagine any team taking on the full $26.5 million owed to Smith next season. Las Vegas could alternately eat some of the $8 million left for Smith to make his deal more palatable and recoup a late-round pick in the process. But that's never a fun conversation to have with ownership, especially about a player who was prioritized by this new regime.
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If Smith stays in town, the Raiders will still potentially have to figure out a different starter.
On the roster right now are Kenny Pickett and Aiden O'Connell. Pickett came over in a preseason trade with the Browns, while O'Connell has started in recent seasons but has been injured most of this year.
One or both of them could still see a start down the stretch of this season, and they'd both have a case for being kept around in 2026.
The Raiders will also be picking quite high in the 2026 NFL Draft, which could lend itself to a QB selection if they want one.
Having Smith as a fallback option isn't the worst thing, either. The Raiders will have some decisions to make.
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