The Kansas City Chiefs are on the cusp of missing the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, and the future isn't looking much better, either.
According to the New York Times Playoff Simulator, the Chiefs have a 12% chance to make the playoffs with four games remaining.
One avenue the Chiefs no longer have is the AFC West, where they have been officially eliminated. That means it's wild card or bust at this point.
In order for the Chiefs to earn a wild-card spot, they pretty much have to run the table over the final four weeks AND need help from the teams in front of them.
Kansas City has two favorable matchups against the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders in that span, but also two tough ones against the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos, so that is no easy road.
Even if the Chiefs don't make the playoffs, one would assume they'll bounce back in 2026. After all, this is Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid we're talking about.
However, we wouldn't be so certain that is going to be the case.
That's because the Chiefs have a dreadful salary cap situation, with Kansas City projected to be $43.7 million over the cap in 2026, per Over The Cap.
We would also point out that the Chiefs have 37 players under contract for next year, and that's before they make any cuts. So, the Chiefs have a ton of roster vacancies to fill, and very limited funds to fill them.
The Chiefs have a few options from here.
One way or the other, the Chiefs are going to have to kick the can down the road and pull off some restructures, as well as some cuts, to get cap compliant.
But how aggressive they are in doing the former will determine their cap outlook for the next few years after that.
Kansas City would be best served doing the bare minimum to get cap compliant in 2026 and going through a lean year or two to get its financial house in order.
This is the time to do it, as Mahomes is still in his prime in his early 30s.
Once the Chiefs get their financial situation straightened out, they'll be in position to significantly improve the roster and make another multi-year run as Mahomes enters the back side of his career.
Hitting on more draft picks will also be crucial, as the best way to get younger and cheaper is through the draft.
If the Chiefs don't do all that and go full kicking the can down the road, it's going to keep the team in salary cap hell for years to come and we will keep seeing more years like 2025.
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