The Denver Broncos are 9-2, coming off an incredible win over the Kansas City Chiefs, heading into a much-deserved Week 12 bye.
But, despite being 9-2 and leading the entire AFC, their chances of securing the number one seed, a bye, and home-field advantage are not the best in the conference.
Ali Bhanpuri of NFL.com delves into why, and unfortunately for the Broncos, their road to securing the top seed is a brutal one.
Why the Broncos' path to the AFC's No. 1 seed is a brutal one
"The Broncos still have just one in four chance of retaining their lead, per the model," Bhanpuri writes, "in part because they lost to the Colts (8-2) earlier this year, but also because they'll face far tougher opponents the rest of he way than New England (9-2) will."
Denver is 9-2, tied atop the AFC with the New England Patriots. But the difference in schedules the rest of the year is stark.
The Broncos have to face the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Kansas City Chiefs (in Kansas City) to close out the year.
They have matchups against the Washington Commanders and the Las Vegas Raiders, but the majority of their schedule is comprised of teams with winning records and the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs.
In comparison, the Patriots face the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens as the long games against teams with at least a.500 record. Games against the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins comprise one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
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The Patriots finishing with the top seed in the AFC is very possible, as Bhanpuri's model has their chances at 29% compared to the Broncos 26%.
That also doesn't include the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts, who could jump ahead of the Broncos with a Week 12 win over the Chiefs. However, the Colts' schedule is a brutal one.
They face the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars twice, along with matchups against the Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, and the San Francisco 49ers.
There isn't an easy game left for Indianapolis, which is a big help for the Broncos in their pursuit of the number one seed. With such a tough schedule, the Broncos might not feel the impact of the Colts' tie-breaker over Denver.
But, even with that advantage, the Broncos' chances of securing the top seed in the AFC aren't the best in the conference. Denver still has a chance, but they aren't the favorite to secure the top seed in the conference.
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