The Denver Broncos are 12-3, and while their Week 16 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars put their top spot in the AFC at risk, they still control their own destiny for the top seed in the AFC.
Denver plays the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, and the Broncos won't have to face Patrick Mahomes or even backup QB Gardner Minshew, as both suffered knee injuries in back-to-back weeks. A win would be a great way to increase their number 1 seed odds.
But as Mike Garafolo of NFL Network highlights, the Broncos can actually clinch the AFC West, and the top seed in the AFC - with home field advantage and a first-round bye - in Week 17.
It's a straightforward path, but they'll need some help.
How Broncos can clinch AFC West, first-round bye in Week 17
The Broncos need to win on Christmas Day against the Chiefs. If they do, there are four other matchups of utmost importance.
Starting on Saturday, Dec. 27, if the Los Angeles Chargers lose to the Houston Texans, then the Broncos could clinch the AFC West as long as they win on Thursday.
Then, if the Buffalo Bills lose to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots lose to the New York Jets, the Broncos will have clinched the AFC's number 1 seed.
Getting all of those matchups to go their way would be an incredible scenario, especially since it'd involve the 3-12 Jets beating the 12-3 Patriots.
The Chargers, Jaguars and Bills could all realistically lose this week, which could leave the Patriots as the only threat for the top spot in the AFC.
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But regardless of how things work out, if the Broncos win in Week 17 against the Chiefs, they'll be just one win away, or a combination of losses from the Bills, Patriots, Jaguars and Chargers.
It's a clear path to the AFC West and the number one seed. But in the same vein, they could easily fall far down from their number 1 seed.
A loss in Week 17 or 18 could have Denver as a Wild Card team, not only losing home field advantage, but also missing out on a first-round bye that it's held for most of the year.
This week will be a huge one for the Broncos, as a lot can change depending on what they do on Christmas Day, and the rest of the NFL does on Saturday and Sunday this weekend.
More Broncos news:
- Broncos' Christmas night showdown with Chiefs has become much easier, less interesting
- Pat Bryant injury update: Latest news on Broncos WR's status after Week 16 game
- Bo Nix discusses throw that injured Pat Bryant in Broncos loss to Jags
- Denver Broncos' remaining schedule still sets up quite favorably to reach top goals
- How Broncos' Week 16 loss to Jaguars can be turned into a positive
- Where Broncos, Jaguars sit in AFC playoff picture after Week 16 matchup