The Denver Broncos are not being given strong odds to reach this year's Super Bowl.
The Broncos opened as underdogs to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and unless the line changes, they will make NFL history this Sunday. The Broncos have been overlooked all season as a contender and even one step away from the final game of the season, that hasn't changed.
The Broncos are mainly underdogs in this game because they are being forced to turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Because Stidham has not started a game since 2023, many fans and analysts feel this could be a walk in the park for the visiting Patriots.
Largest home underdogs in Conference Championship history:
— SportsLine (@SportsLine) January 20, 2026
2025 Broncos +5.5 vs Patriots
1977 Broncos +4 vs Raiders
1976 Raiders +4 vs Steelers pic.twitter.com/ZFPpLcuIZH
Currently listed as a 5.5-point underdog, the Broncos would be the biggest home underdog in conference championship history. Their 1977 squad is already tied with the 1976 Oakland Raiders as the biggest home underdogs ever at four points. The Broncos are a full point and a half more than that, which shows you what oddsmakers feel about their chances.
However, history is on their side as both of those teams won those games. The 1976 Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points and the following year, those same Raiders lost to the Broncos, who went to their first Super Bowl ever while playing in the postseason for the first time in team history.
This Broncos team is not just happy to be there. They went 14-3 this season behind a stout defense and the ability to win close games on a consistent basis, which was far from a fluke. Stidham will be ready to go and Sean Payton is likely licking his chops over how much bulletin board material has been created in the doubt from the outside world surrounding this team.
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New England is going to be a tough out. Payton is well aware of that. But the Broncos have been beaten at home just one time in the last 463 days.
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