The Chicago Bears have made some incredible comebacks this season, with their most recent being one of the more stunning of the 2025 NFL season.
Thanks to a miraculous onside kick recovery, a Green Bay Packers offensive and defensive collapse, and a lucky game-tying touchdown pass, the Bears barely snuck past the Packers.
For ESPN analyst Ben Solak, this win, combined with the Bears' wins throughout the season, has the Bears as a "fake good" team rather than a good team without any caveats. He explained why with an overarching point emphasizing the Bears' luck.
Bears called 'fake good' by ESPN NFL analyst amid Packers comeback win
"I can very easily build the case that the Bears are fake good," Solak writes. "... The Bears have gotten 'a little lucky' a lot this season.... Those plays take skill, but if there's a lesson to be learned from the 2024 and 2025 Chiefs, it's that being good at winning close games is awesome... Until it very suddenly, and very brutally, isn't."
Some of the moments that Solak points to this season, beyond the wild Packers comeback, are the Week 6 win over the Washington Commanders with a botched handoff turned into a fumble, and the Week 4 Las Vegas Raiders blocked field goal that would've won the game.
Also, a long kickoff return against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 saved the game, while Colston Loveland's long touchdown catch against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 has all made for incredibly lucky moments this season.
Winning these close games can help the Bears make the playoffs, but the Bears need to not rely upon these miraculous circumstances going forward; otherwise, the Bears might be in dire straits heading into the playoffs.
Luck can run out, and as seen with the Kansas City Chiefs over the last year, when that luck dries up, things can come crashing down.
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Solak shared a few statistics that highlight just how lucky, and improbable, the Bears' record is this season: "They are 6-4 when they've had a win probability of 20% or worse at any point of a game. Teams are not supposed to win 60% of games in which they have a 30% chance to win. That, quite literally, is not how percentages work."
These close victories are great in the moment and can help build an overall winning season. But, come the playoffs, the Bears might not be able to rely upon this luck.
When it's crunch time and facing teams in big moments, can they force these improbable scenarios to happen again? It's not likely, no matter how many times they've gotten away with it this season.
Solak is expressing caution with the Bears' record this season. While they're undeniably a good team, the question of how good they are might not be represented by their current record of 11-4, and spot atop the NFC North.
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