2025 was supposed to be a special year for the Buffalo Bills. One season removed from reaching their second AFC Championship Game of the Josh Allen era, and scoring the most points of any team through the regular season and postseason, there was no reason to believe Buffalo wouldn't be in the mix for the Super Bowl, once again.
But, as most things do, Buffalo has regressed towards the mean in 2025. Their defense has gone from being having the fourth-best EPA against the run to the fourth worst, and they've allowed 190+ rushing yards three times. They are also allowing more points per game, and had the 10th fewest pressures in the NFL entering Week 12.
Offensively, thinks aren't much better. Sure, they entered the week as the top offense in the NFL in terms of yards per game, and were coming off a 44-point performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Buffalo's offense is so volatile. For every 497 yard performance against the Baltimore Ravens, there is a 291 yard, 14-point showing against the now 3-7 Atlanta Falcons - by the way, that is the last game the Falcons have won before losing their last five.
The play-calling of Joe Brady has grown stale and become predictable. The Bills spammed mesh concepts that the Houston Texans sniffed out throughout the evening. After Tyrell Shavers had a career day in Week 11, catching four passes for 90 yards and a touchdown, he wasn't targeted once against the Texans. On 4th and 1 in scoring position when everyone in the building expected a handoff to James Cook, Brady called just that, which the Texans stuffed. This was despite Josh Allen leaping over everyone on a 4th and 1 earlier in the game to pick up the first down.
The biggest concern with Brady is the lack of answers he has. The Texans sacked Josh Allen eight times, which marks a new career high. That came in large part because the Bills made no adjustments to their protections. They didn't get heavier, they didn't chip, and they didn't do anything to help Allen. If it's not a random third-down reverse that doesn't work, it's a screen pass to Khalil Shakir that doesn't work. If it's neither of those things, it's a shallow pass play that doesn't get big yardage because no receivers on the boundary can separate.
The offense is stale, predictable and too reliant on Josh Allen to put on the cape and save the day. Perhaps the biggest problem for this Bills team in particular, though, is that Allen can't save this team. He himself hasn't been perfect - he threw two interceptions in the loss to the Texans and has nine on the season (he had six in 2024). He routinely runs backwards 15 yards trying to extend plays on third down before taking massive sacks.
That's not to say Allen isn't great - he certainly is - but he also has more chinks in his armor than in season's past. Considering Allen's playstyle, that is to be expected, but the Bills aren't a team that is built to win if Allen doesn't play well, and he can't save this unit. The defense can't tackle, the receivers can't separate, and the play-calling is bad. There is only so much that No. 17 can do. And in a year where it looks as if the Kansas City Chiefs could miss the postseason, the Bills whiffed on what was a golden opportunity to finally get over the hump. Sure, there is still time remaining before the postseason arrives, but it's clear this team's shortcomings and self-inflicted incompetency will be too much to overcome.
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