The Buffalo Bills have gotten a lot of criticism for their draft pick of Keon Coleman.
But Pro Football Focus writer Timo Riske actually thinks GM Brandon Beane should be viewed more harshly for his pick of tight end Dalton Kincaid.
First, the basic facts.
Kincaid went No. 25 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Utah, joining a tight end room that already (and still) included Dawson Knox.
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He went nine picks before Lions tight end Sam LaPorta, but there aren't a ton of players in the picks soon after him that look like major misses.
The more notable point Riske makes is about Kincaid's positional ability.
"Receiving-only TEs lost a lot of value, since you can't just put them in the slot and expect to get a good passing look anymore," Riske wrote on X. "Slot TEs vs LBs typically produce higher than Slot WRs vs DBs, but Slot TEs lose their advantage when facing the same DBs a slot WR would face."
Riske then uses Falcons TE Kyle Pitts as an example of the changing strategies by offenses and defenses.
"If Kyle Pitts got picked in 2015, he might have been the best TE in the league at that point," Riske writes. "Not in 2021. I think it was always bonkers to draft Pitts over Chase, but we can excuse the Falcons maybe a bit, because the defensive shift was just getting started at that point."
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Kincaid's pick hasn't given the Bills a huge difference maker like many may have hoped.
"Kincaid got picked two years later, the defensive shift was in full swing and all the scouting reports said 'receiving only TE,'" Riske writes. "That looks very much like a behind the curve moment for Beane."
And while owner Terry Pegula tried to pass off the Coleman pick as a coaching staff decision, it's hard to imagine that every pick fits that bill.
Beane has a lot of work to do to prove that the decision to keep him around (and give him a promotion) while promoting Sean McDermott was a good one.
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