Heading into the final week of the regular season, ESPN gives the Buffalo Bills a 5.9% chance to win the Super Bowl.
It'd be higher if not for one major weakness that all of Bills Mafia has been worried about the entire season.
The run defense is bad.
At times, it has been horrific.
In a new article on Wednesday, ESPN's Aaron Schatz singled out one major concern for each playoff team, and that's what he chose for the Bills.
"It's pretty clear that to beat the Bills, you must run on them," Schatz writes. "Buffalo's undersized defense ranks 31st in run defense DVOA. Is there a particular type of run that works best? No -- they all work. Against runs marked by FTN Data as man blocking (iso, duo, power), the Bills allow a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry and are 29th in DVOA. Against runs marked as zone blocking, the Bills are better in yards per carry (4.9, which ranks 29th) but worse in DVOA (31st)."
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You don't need to know what all those words even mean to understand that ranking 29th or 31st out of 32 NFL teams in any statistic is not ideal.
The Bills certainly don't want to see Derrick Henry anywhere near them in the postseason.
Buffalo has other weaknesses, too, highlighted by a wide receiver group that simply doesn't get open enough.
But if the Bills can't stop the run on a cold playoff day, it won't matter what the offense does. The run defense flaw could be their undoing all by itself.
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