Following a crushing loss to No. 4 Georgia last Saturday, the Texas Longhorns find themselves in a precarious position. Now sitting at No. 17 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, their CFP hopes are hanging by a thread, and with several teams ahead of them carrying just two losses into Week 13, Texas fans need to root for as much chaos as possible. Saturday offers a buffet of opportunities for that kind of mayhem, and with only two weeks left, Texas fans should keep a close eye on several pivotal matchups across the country.
For Texas, the path to the CFP relies on chaos above them.
Note: This will only include games between two Power 4 teams, with key teams in bold. No offense to fans of Samford, Charlotte, or Eastern Illinois; best of luck against your SEC opponents (and the 40+ point spreads).
SEC
- No. 22 Missouri over No. 8 Oklahoma
- Kentucky over No. 14 Vanderbilt
The Longhorns own head-to-head victories over both the Sooners and the Commodores. However, both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt sit at 8–2, one game ahead of the 7–3 Longhorns. A third loss for either SEC foe would knock them out of at-large contention and drop them behind Texas in the rankings.
Non-SEC
- Cincinnati over No. 11 BYU
The Cougars sit at 9–1, and with only one loss, a win over the Bearcats may be enough to clinch an at-large bid (at the very least). For Texas, the best-case scenario is for BYU to have multiple regular-season losses, and Cincinnati is by far the biggest test remaining on BYU’s schedule.
- No. 7 Oregon over No. 15 USC
- Virginia Tech over No. 13 Miami
- Syracuse over No. 9 Notre Dame
- Kansas State over No. 12 Utah
- Maryland over No. 18 Michigan
All five teams in bold currently have two losses, and a third defeat for any of these programs would effectively eliminate them from contention. Furthermore, none of the five have multiple wins over teams currently in the top 15, a feat Texas can claim; this would give Texas the edge should there be multiple teams with three losses fighting to sneak in at season’s end. Of these, a USC win would be most damaging for the Longhorns as a road win at No. 7 Oregon would do wonders for the Trojans’ résumé. On the other hand, a Michigan win would move the needle the least as the Wolverines still have their annual battle with No. 1 Ohio State remaining.
Bottom Line
For Texas, the path into the CFP is built on chaos. The Longhorns need to win out, but they also need the landscape around them to shift in just the right ways. Every third loss handed to a two-loss team clears the Longhorns’ path back into the picture. Ideally, multiple programs in the ACC and Big 12 stumble, leaving both conferences as one-bid leagues. If even some of these results break Texas’ way on Saturday, the Longhorns could enter the final week of the regular season with a realistic chance to make history as the first three-loss team to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
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