After a 34–31 win over No. 9 Vanderbilt, Texas remains firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation heading into its bye week. The Longhorns’ final three games: at No. 5 Georgia, at home against Arkansas, and against No. 3 Texas A&M in the regular-season finale, will determine whether they can turn an up-and-down season into a playoff berth when the 12-team field is announced next month.
Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) climbed to No. 13 in the latest AP poll released Sunday. Its playoff path is narrow, but recent chaos across college football has opened the door slightly wider. With Miami and Georgia Tech suffering blemishing losses over the weekend, it appears the ACC will likely send only one team to the playoff. That shift could create an additional at-large opportunity for a high-ranking program.
According to ESPN’s Heather Dinich, Texas’ win over Vanderbilt “kept the Longhorns in the conversation,” setting up one of the toughest closing stretches of any contender. Texas must finish 9-3 to stay alive, a scenario that includes a presumed loss at Georgia but home wins over Arkansas and rival Texas A&M. From there, two distinct playoff pictures could emerge.
Scenario 1: Two Big 12 teams make it
ESPN's 'College GameDay' will head to Lubbock this weekend for the showdown between No. 8 BYU and No. 9 Texas Tech, a matchup that could send both teams to the playoff if they split two competitive meetings, one in the regular season and another in the Big 12 championship. In that case, Texas Tech (11-2) would secure the conference’s automatic berth by winning the conference title, while BYU (12-1) lands an at-large bid despite losing in the conference championship, tightening the field for everyone else.
That scenario would leave Texas and No. 10 Notre Dame competing directly for the final at-large slot. The committee would weigh Texas’s strength of schedule, SEC pedigree, and top-25 victories against Notre Dame’s 10-2 record and independent résumé. The Irish lost both of their toughest games, falling to Miami and Texas A&M, while Texas’ setbacks include a narrow seven-point loss at No. 1 Ohio State and defeats to Florida and Georgia.
Scenario 2: Big 12 cannibalization
If the Big 12 beats itself up, for instance, BYU winning this weekend but dropping games to No. 25 Cincinnati and TCU before later capturing the league title, the conference would send only one representative to the playoff. This is because the Big 12 runner-up would finish with three losses, eliminating itself from at-large contention in what many view as a weaker conference compared with the SEC or Big Ten. That outcome would open an “extra” at-large spot, creating room for multiple teams to slide in. In this scenario, Texas would battle Notre Dame, No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 15 Vanderbilt for the final playoff positions.
Vanderbilt could still make serious noise if it finishes 10-2 by beating No. 23 Tennessee in the regular-season finale, a big “if,” according to ESPN Analytics, which currently gives the Commodores a 42.9% chance to win. A victory would strengthen Texas’s win over Vanderbilt and give the Commodores a legitimate argument alongside the Longhorns, Sooners, and Fighting Irish. Still, Texas’ victories against both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt would stand out in any head-to-head comparison.
The numbers game
The committee’s deliberations could hinge on metrics as much as wins and losses. According to ESPN, Texas ranks No. 9 in Strength of Record and No. 11 in Strength of Schedule, while Notre Dame sits at No. 15 and No. 23 in those same categories. But those numbers are deceiving. Notre Dame’s strength figures are inflated by its early-season losses to Texas A&M and Miami, while Texas’s slate offers sustained difficulty from start to finish.
If the Longhorns beat A&M, they would own a critical common-opponent advantage over Notre Dame, which lost to the Aggies in September.
Lessons from history
The committee has a history of rewarding late surges from SEC programs. Last season, a 9-3 Alabama team reached the playoff mix thanks to its brand value and schedule strength before a costly loss to unranked Oklahoma ended its hopes. Texas fits a similar mold: a national brand with quality losses, an elite schedule, and the potential to close with momentum.
Two of Texas’s three defeats have come against ranked opponents: No. 1 Ohio State and, in this projection, No. 5 Georgia. The other was a road loss to Florida. Those setbacks are less likely to be viewed as damaging if the Longhorns can close the season with a statement win over No. 3 Texas A&M.
What’s at stake
Texas’s margin for error is gone, but opportunity remains. Consecutive wins to close the regular season would not only elevate the Longhorns to 9-3 but deliver their biggest statement of the year, a home win over No. 3 Texas A&M in the final game the selection committee sees before making its decision.
The 2025 playoff picture is crowded, yet Texas has the ingredients the committee often values most: strength, momentum, and brand. If November breaks their way, the Longhorns could do what Alabama nearly did in 2024, turning a three-loss season into an at-large postseason birth.
“The window is narrow,” Dinich wrote, “but it’s open.” For Texas, that’s enough. Win the last two, and the Longhorns might just crash the playoff party.
More college football news:
- Deion Sanders buyout, contract details as Colorado Buffaloes coach
- Brian Kelly buyout, contract details as LSU Tigers coach
- Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter suffers major blow during rookie season
- Will Lane Kiffin leave Ole Miss? What to know about latest rumors
- Beloved college football mascot diagnosed with cancer