Arch Manning’s placement in ESPN’s latest Power Four quarterback rankings is telling. Despite being billed as a preseason Heisman favorite and potential 2026 No. 1 overall pick, the Texas Longhorns signal caller sits at No. 41 overall, with a Total QBR of 57.2.
His numbers aren't terrible with 888 passing yards, 132 rushing yards, and 14 total touchdowns through four games. He's not disastrous, but his play has not matched the hype.
The raw data reflects his inconsistency. Manning averages 3.1 seconds to release, one of the slowest in the country, and his 61.3% completion rate ranks 96th nationally, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly.
Manning has also thrown three interceptions, placing him 100th in interception rate. While Texas’ stout defense buys him developmental time, the hesitation in Manning’s decision-making has been noticeable. He is often caught between his vast knowledge of passing mechanics and the need for execution.
More context around the rankings makes Manning’s standing more apparent. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, a preseason All-American, has the Tigers off to a 1-3 start and is buried at 94th in QBR. Penn State's Drew Allar sits even lower at 88th. And yet the top five features names like Notre Dame's C.J. Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, who was at Division II's Ferris State last year.
For Manning, the start of 2025 has included flashes and setbacks. He was inefficiency against Ohio State in Week 1 is what many NFL decision makers will remember. While he’s accounted for 14 touchdowns, an NFL scouting director described his Ohio State tape to The Athletic as “ugly,” raising the possibility that he’s dealing with the “yips.” That concern has circulated in scouting circles, with evaluators noting the unique weight of his last name and the pressure it carries.
The Manning era at Texas isn’t off the rails, but one month in and it is far shakier than anyone anticipated. At this point, Manning has more to prove than to celebrate, especially with the heart of the SEC schedule coming.
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