It does not seem especially stunning to see the New England Patriots on top of the standings in the AFC East. We all spent the better part of the past quarter-century not even bothering to glance at that portion of the NFL playoff picture because the Pats’ autumn dominance was as inevitable pumpkin spice.
And then we remember.
Tom Brady is calling NFL games as Fox Sports’ lead analyst.
Bill Belichick is making a hash of things as North Carolina Tar Heels coach.
The guy winning with the Pats now, who already has division victories on the road against preseason favorite Buffalo and perennial contender Miami, is Mike Vrabel. Not even two years ago, Vrabel (and his four winning seasons out of six) were deemed to be no longer worthy of coaching the Tennessee Titans. Yeah, those Titans, the team that Monday fired Vrabel’s successor after 1.35 seasons.
It’s doubtful Penn State would have reconsidered its decision to dismiss James Franklin had the Titans moved first and reminded everyone in Nittany Lion country the risk being pondered. “We can do better” is a mentality that has led so many teams in so many sports to do significantly worse.
Franklin’s mortal sin, if you scrub down to the essence, was being unable to construct a program superior to the best in the country. His Lions were 1-10 against Ohio State, which comprised the majority of the now-legendary 4-21 Franklin record against top-10 opponents.
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Michigan’s record against its rival over that period was 4-6, likely spared a seventh defeat in 2020 by a COVID cancellation. Everyone else was 11-113 against the Buckeyes.
“Football is our backbone,” Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft told the media this week. “We have invested at the highest level. With that comes high expectations. I believe a new leader can help us win a national championship, and now is the right time for this change.”
Nothing he said there was untrue, except maybe there at the end.
Football is Penn State athletics. They do have high expectations. And a new leader could lead the Lions to a national championship.
And a new leader could lead them to decline.
BENDER: Penn State needs to be honest with itself about its program
Here is the fundamental dichotomy regarding coaches at the highest level of sport: They inevitably are paid like the most precious of resources but all too rarely treated as such.
So many who follow sports, who cover sports, and – stunningly – run sports lead themselves to believe there always is a coach employed elsewhere who can take their team to the “next level”.
And so often, what happens is that next level winds up two or three levels down from the success or excellence they’d been enjoying.
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Wisconsin won double-digit games four times in Paul Chryst’s first six full seasons, with appearances in the Cotton, Orange and Rose bowls and three trips to the Big Ten Championship game. When his 2022 team started 2-3, he was dismissed. In the Badgers’ third season under Luke Fickell, the composite record is 14-17, including 2-4 this year, and the remaining schedule includes three top-10 teams.
Gus Malzahn won the 2013 SEC title, never produced a losing record, twice finished first in the rugged SEC West and compiled a 6-4 record in 2020, with COVID restrictions limiting the schedule to all SEC opponents (and no Mercer or Louisiana-Monroe). “We will begin a search immediately for a coach that can help the Auburn program consistently compete at the highest level,” AD Allen Greene said then.
That search has not succeeded, even five years later. Auburn has had more coaches (two) than winning seasons (none) since Malzahn was let go.
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And it is not just football, nor even just the coaches who are dismissed.
In 2019, I reported Cincinnati had offered basketball coach Mick Cronin a functional pay cut – by making his contract bonuses more difficult to attain – rather than approaching him with the long-term extension he’d sought to essentially make him a Bearcat for life. He’d reached the NCAA Tournament in nine consecutive seasons, won two conference regular-season championships and two league tournament titles but only once reached the NCAA Sweet 16.
Many around the program, including some boosters and the AD, figured they could do better.
They haven’t returned to March Madness in the six seasons since Cronin left for UCLA.
Rick Barnes was fired in 2015, after his 15th 20-win season and 16th NCAA Tournament appearance in 17 seasons at Texas. He was about to turn 61 then. Now 71, he’s reached the past seven editions of March Madness and appeared in the past two Elite Eights. The Longhorns are onto their fourth coach in 11 years and hoping Sean Miller can create for them the sort of program Barnes has delivered at that other UT.
Mike Budenholzer won the 2021 NBA title with the Milwaukee Bucks, then led them to the league’s best record two seasons later. He’d won 69.3 percent of his games, five consecutive division titles, eight playoff series and topped the .600 mark every year. When the Bucks were upset in the 2023 first round by the Heat, he was fired. They’ve not advanced in the playoffs since.
Examples of actual ascent in these circumstances are rare. Kirby Smart at Georgia. Anyone else? It's hard to think of any, really.
Because finding great coaches takes money, but money alone can’t produce a successful coach. Those who have one ought to think more intently about whether moving on is the proper choice. Because coaches who win generally continue winning, and the longer they win, the more opportunities they’ll have eventually to win the biggest games.
Jim Calhoun at Connecticut, Bill Self at Kansas and Ryan Day at Ohio State are all coaches who received blistering criticism for falling short of their sport’s ultimate prize. Each now is a champion.
“Can win the big one” often turns out to really mean, “Hasn’t won the big one yet.”
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