It’s only the first weekend in October, yet the College Football Playoff is already on the minds of fans. Every loss feels like it dramatically shifts CFP odds, though technically, an early loss is easier to recover from than one later in the season.
The CFP has expanded to 12 teams in its latest format, but back when it was four teams, even one or two losses could end a team’s playoff hopes, depending on the circumstances. With the new system, we’re still figuring out when the warning sirens should sound, but two losses in the first half of the season at least puts a team on thin ice.
Penn State opened the season with three straight wins, then hosted Oregon at home and fell 30–24. They followed that with a loss to previously winless UCLA — one of the most shocking defeats for the program in recent memory. Not only was this Penn State’s second loss of the year, but it also marked their second loss in as many conference games. The Nittany Lions are now 3–2 with seven games remaining, including matchups against Ohio State and Indiana in early November.
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Here is a look at whether or not Penn State's loss to UCLA will keep it out of the CFP this year.
Is Penn State out of the playoffs?
While sports analysis is often dominated by hot takes these days, it is simply too early to know for sure. Most teams haven't played half their schedule yet, so there is still plenty of time for upsets and chaos before the College Football Playoff Selection Show on Sunday, December 7.
That being said, Penn State is certainly already behind the 8-ball. UCLA entered the game 0-4 and hadn't led at a single point in any of the losses. The Bruins led for the vast majority of the game against the Nittany Lions, taking a 27-7 lead into halftime. UCLA had even fired its head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator after its third loss of the season, so Penn State lost to a team with an interim head coach and an offensive coordinator who had been calling plays for two weeks.
A game, even on the road, against a winless UCLA is the very definition of a bad loss. The Nittany Lions still have the likes of Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana and Nebraska on their schedule and head into the meat of conference play already with two conference losses.
Penn State is the first top 10 team to lose to an 0-4 or worse opponent in 40 years. Brutal.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 4, 2025
Two losses don't rule Penn State out of the playoffs, though, as eight of the 12 teams from a year ago had two losses. Clemson even made the field with three losses, but that was because they beat SMU in the ACC title game. Essentially, the second loss to UCLA means that Penn State likely doesn't control its own destiny.
The Nittany Lions now likely need to win the remainder of their games to have a chance at a playoff berth. Penn State probably needs some help from other conference teams, such as Oregon and Michigan, to lose a few games so the Nittany Lions can secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship game and earn an automatic bid.
If you ask Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, though, he still believes that Penn State has the CFP in its future.
CFP? Postgame I asked Drew Allar, “Are you guys still in the hunt for the playoffs?”
— Mike Poorman (@PSUPoorman) October 4, 2025
He turned and asked me, “What do you think?
“I don’t know,” I said.
To which he replied, “Yes.” pic.twitter.com/2VxSAfdFmL
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL: How long will failed Bill Belichick experiment continue in Chapel Hill?
Penn State remaining schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| October 11 | vs. Northwestern |
| October 18 | at Iowa |
| November 1 | at Ohio State |
| November 8 | vs. Indiana |
| November 15 | at Michigan State |
| November 22 | vs. Nebraska |
| November 29 | at Rutgers |