TL;DR
- Terry Smith has name recognition and ties to Penn State, making him a favored candidate.
- Mid-season coaching changes rarely improve team performance, with Power 4 teams showing poor records post-dismissal.
- Interim coaches performing well risk permanent appointment, which often doesn't lead to long-term success.
- Penn State's situation is not unfixable, but hiring an interim heavily involved in issues is questionable.
If head coaching selections were handled like political contests, Terry Smith would possess a significant edge compared to other contenders for The Penn State football head coach position.
For one, he has name recognition.
As in: We know he’s running.
We don’t know who else might want the job.
Furthermore, there's a significant chance to win over the public by serving as the interim head coach who stepped in after James Franklin's dismissal on October 12th. With six games left on the calendar, a leader was needed. Given his status as a well-liked former Nittany Lions athlete, a native of Pennsylvania with a distinguished high school coaching career, and his strong ties within the recruiting circles, Smith was perfectly situated to be the favored candidate to succeed Franklin.
“No one knows Penn State better than me,” Smith said in a Monday press conference. “Of all the candidates that are out there, I know the history of Penn State, I know the culture, the DNA. I know the locker room. I know the administration.”
He's not incorrect. This serves as a prime illustration of why the “fire Coach now!” Contagion negatively impacts programs pursuing this path. Implementing a coaching transition mid-season merely satisfies the urge to penalize a coach for not achieving program-specific objectives. Does it provide immediate satisfaction? Evidently, as many are quick to make their move.
Making a mid-season coaching change typically doesn't improve a team's performance. The eight Power 4 teams that dismissed their coaches during the season have a collective record of 11 wins and 33 losses since those decisions, a stark contrast to their 18-26 record prior. The idea that players might benefit from hearing a new perspective or be motivated by a switch in leadership is generally only supported in situations where the team is already in significant disarray.
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It's quite something, Florida dismissed Billy Napier shortly after their victory over Mississippi State, and they've gone on to lose every subsequent game, with a total deficit of 65 points across those losses.
These early dismissals rarely provide programs with the intended advantage in finding a new head coach. Arkansas has been searching for Sam Pittman’s successor for 59 days. Oklahoma State has been searching for 5 days longer, although they are reportedly close to hiring North Texas coach Eric Morris. They were in a significant rush to dismiss Mike Gundy, and he's practically one of their own. He played quarterback for The Cowboys, concluding his playing career in 1989, and then spent all but five years of his 35-year coaching tenure in Stillwater. They couldn't wait to part ways with him?
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There's no benefit to signaling interest prematurely for individuals who are both competent football coaches and decent people. Should the administration, along with influential wealthy donors, decide their current coach must depart, the athletic director can initiate contact with Jimmy Sexton and Trace Armstrong to ascertain which of their clients are ready and willing to transition, even without a public vacancy.
Penn State's situation is not unfixable. While Smith is an excellent representative for the university, it would be odd if the top choice to succeed someone dismissed after three consecutive seasons of double-digit victories was an individual heavily implicated in the issues that caused dissatisfaction.
Engaging in interim roles carries risks, and it's generally advisable to do so only when absolutely required. This is because when interim coaches perform well, or even adequately, there's a strong tendency to retain them permanently. However, this seldom leads to a positive outcome.
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Following Steve Sarkisian's leave and subsequent dismissal, Clay Helton assumed interim leadership at USC. His 5-4 record led to his permanent appointment. While USC experienced some successful seasons under his tenure, the team opted to move on after a 1-1 beginning to the 2021 campaign. A decade prior, Illinois transitioned Bill Cubit from interim to permanent coach, though his tenure lasted just one season.
Texas fired basketball coach Chris Beard in December 2022 after his arrest on domestic violence charges. Rodney Terry did such a magnificent job keeping the Longhorns together and moving forward, reaching the NCAA Elite Eight, AllSportsPeople named Terry its national Coach of the Year. And UT promoted him to head coach – then let him go after he reached a third consecutive NCAA Tournament in 2025.
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Dabo Swinney's tenure at Clemson could be pointed to by Smith's backers as a case of an interim coach who was promoted and achieved great success. However, one can't help but question in today's climate if Swinney would have been allowed to coach a third full season following a 6-7 record in 2010.
Chants of support were heard from fans within Beaver Stadium during Penn State's final home game last Saturday, a victory against Nebraska, and following the game, some notable players displayed a sign backing Smith as the team's subsequent coach.
QBs Drew Allar and Ethan Grunkemeyer holding a sign telling Penn State to hire Terry Smith. Pic.twitter.com/5Ael27UDC8
— Allie Berube (@allieberube) November 23, 2025
Should Penn State secure a brilliant outside hire to succeed Franklin (and his interim replacement), the majority of supporters will readily accept the new coach. However, a segment will recall and regret that Smith wasn't given the chance. It would have been far simpler to allow Franklin to complete his tenure.