"We are … Penn State!"
That's the ethos – the credo for a program that fired coach James Franklin on Sunday. Franklin had a 104-45 record – a .697 winning percentage since taking over in 2014.
That is not even the shocking part. The Nittany Lions will pay a $49 million buyout. Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft rationalized the decision in a statement.
"Penn State owes an enormous amount of gratitude to Coach Franklin who rebuilt our football program into a national power," Kraft said. "He won a Big Ten championship, led us to seven New Year's Six bowl games and a College Football Playoff appearance last year. However, we hold our athletics programs to the highest of standards, and we believe this is the right moment for new leadership at the helm of our football program to advance us toward Big Ten and national championships."
What is that standard exactly? This is where Penn State better be honest. Instead of a declaration, maybe ask a question: "What is Penn State?"
National power? The Nittany Lions haven't won a national championship since 1986. Big Ten powerhouse? Penn State has won four Big Ten championships since joining the conference since 1994. Ohio State has 13 Big Ten championships and three national titles since 1994. Michigan has eight Big Ten championships and two national titles since 1994.
Penn State is not that. Perennial playoff contender? That is it – and the next coach will have to be more than that. There is a tremendous risk of cratering the program at a heavy cost. This is the first major program – we will allow it – to do it in the 12-team College Football Playoff era. Was this really the right time?
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Was Penn State's firing of James Franklin justifiable?
Minutes after a 30-24 double-overtime loss to No. 6 Oregon on Sept. 26, Franklin was tasked to put into perspective another top-10 loss on the "Whiteout" stage and his 4-21 record against top-10 teams.
"I kinda look at the entire picture," Franklin said. "I get that narrative, and it's really not a narrative. It's factual. It's the facts. I get it. I try to look at the entire picture, and what we've done here but at the end of the day we've gotta find a way to win those games."
Even the harshest Franklin critic could not have imagined what would happen the next two weeks. UCLA upset Penn State 42-37 at a mostly-empty Rose Bowl on Oct. 4. Northwestern beat the Nittany Lions 22-21 on Saturday.
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Nobody is saying this isn't a disaster. Penn State was No. 2 in the preseason. The offense is of the square-peg, round-hole variety, where Allar – a 6-foot-5, 235-pound quarterback – was asked to throw 83 passes of 10 yards or less and 13 passes of 20 yards or more. Allar, by the way, was 5 of 13 for 143 yards and four TDs on the deep balls, according to PFF. He's not a read-option, RPO quarterback.
Hiring defensive coordinator Jim Knowles away from Ohio State didn't work either. The Nittany Lions allowed 31.3 points per game the last three weeks. So, Penn State is not going to the CFP in a season that was supposed to be all-in like Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024. Franklin failed, but that might be more the norm than an anomaly in the 18-team Big Ten and 12-team College Football Playoff era.
More schools might have inexplicably bad seasons. Florida State in 2024, anyone?
Kraft painted most of that whole picture in that statement. Penn State won 10 or more games each of the last three seasons. The Nittany Lions were in a tie game with Notre Dame in the CFP semifinals with less than five minutes to play last season. Was anybody under the illusion that Penn State would beat Ohio State in the CFP championship game?
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That is part of the problem here, too.
Is Penn State really a national championship contender?
Penn State is not Ohio State. Right now, the Nittany Lions are not equipped to compete for national championships every season. Michigan isn't either. Neither is USC, Nebraska or any other so-called blue-blood program in the Big Ten.
Will the next coach make that happen? Probably not. We've turned the Big Ten into a junior varsity NFL, and with the exception of Ohio State – and Indiana – the West Coast travel has been a problem. That showed up in the loss to UCLA. You can say it's inexcusable, but take another look at what USC did to Michigan on Saturday. Ohio State is the only recession-proof program right now, and they are run like a NFL team.
Speaking of that, let's look at the NFL coaches in Pennsylvania. If the Steelers or Eagles miss the playoffs this season, Mike Tomlin and Nick Sirianni are back on the sideline in 2026. Yes, they have the benefit of a Super Bowl championship, but at championship-level organizations, emotional decisions of this kind are not made in three weeks.
Franklin had Penn State in the right spot in terms of where the program's reality setting is. Penn State won 10 or more games five times from 2016-23 and would have been a 12-team playoff regular had that been the format instead of four teams. It's the equivalent of making the Sweet 16 in college basketball. Purdue's Matt Painter and Michigan State's Tom Izzo don't get let go after a first-round loss, do they? The Big Ten hasn’t won a men’s basketball championship since 2000, and they do not fire coaches based on a few regular-season losses. That's the sort of thing that goes on at Indiana.
About that …
Who will Penn State hire as next head coach?
Chances are Penn State fans are googling Curt Cignetti today. The Indiana coach is 17-2 in his second season, has two top-10 victories this year and the Hoosiers are in position to make the Big Ten championship game. He's from Pittsburgh, and Penn State in theory offers more resources to win a national championship.
They must if they are willing to pay a $49 million buyout, right?
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Cignetti, 64, has the same chance to win a Big Ten championship – and even a national championship – at Indiana, where he will be universally revered as long as he stays. Why would he leave for Penn State? That's another reality check for the program.
Nebraska coach Matt Rhule will be the next search. He's 5-1 with the Huskers, and he played at Penn State from 1994-97. The alma mater always works, but that takes time, too.
Scott Frost was a disaster at Nebraska. Michigan wanted to run Jim Harbaugh out after a 2-4 season in 2020. The Wolverines won three straight Big Ten championships – and a national championship in 2023. The Wolverines and Nittany Lions are the two closest programs in terms of scope and national interest. Michigan finally beat Ohio State a few times. That's the difference.
If it's not one of those two, then the Penn State fanbase might not be satisfied before that new era starts.
Whoever that next coach is will feel this weight, and there are no guarantees it will work out. Michigan cratered the program after Lloyd Carr retired after a disastrous 2007 season that included losses to Appalachian State and Oregon. The Wolverines were 46-42 the next seven seasons under Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke. You don't think that can happen in an 18-team Big Ten?
Nobody is saying Penn State shouldn't have expected more out of Franklin this season or beyond. The weight and frustration of those top-10 failures was palpable against Oregon during that "Whiteout." The problem is it spread into a virus in those losses against UCLA and Northwestern, and it's not going to get better this season.
You are what your record says you are – and despite this season Franklin's was pretty good. Will the next coach at Penn State have a better record?
"We are .. not sure."