Teams with a first-round bye are now 0-6 in the CFP new format

Christian Standal

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Teams with a first-round bye are now 0-6 in the CFP new format image

We are now in the second year of the expanded College Football Playoff, and an early trend is raising serious questions about the new format. Before 2024, the CFP featured just four teams. All four received byes, which created a fairly even playing field heading into the semifinals. With the move to a 12-team playoff, the top four seeds now receive a first-round bye—an advantage that, so far, hasn’t looked like one at all.

Since the expansion began, teams with a first-round bye are a combined 0-6 in playoff games.

Last season offered the first warning signs. The top four seeds came from the Big Ten, Mountain West, Big 12, and SEC, and none of them survived their opening matchup. Fourth-seeded Arizona State played fifth-seeded Texas in a competitive game but fell 39-31. First-seeded Oregon, widely projected to win the national title, was stunned by eighth-seeded Ohio State in a 41-21 blowout. Third-seeded Boise State was handled easily by sixth-seeded Penn State, losing 31-14. Then second-seeded Georgia was shocked by seventh-seeded Notre Dame, falling 23-10. Every team with a bye lost.

 

At the time, the long layoff was discussed but mostly brushed aside. Those teams had roughly 11 to 12 days off, noticeable, but not extreme.

This season, the issue has become impossible to ignore. Teams with first-round byes are now coming off 25 to 26 days without a game, while their opponents enter battle-tested and in rhythm.

That gap showed up again last night when No. 10 Miami upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-14. Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin turned in one of the roughest games of his career. He threw for 287 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, solid numbers on paper, but well below his usual standard. Sayin finished fourth in the Heisman race, yet Ohio State never looked fully comfortable.

The trend continued with Texas Tech’s loss to Oregon. The Ducks, who were embarrassed as a top seed with a bye last season, flipped the script this time. Oregon dominated fourth-seeded Texas Tech 23-0, handing another rested team a shutout loss.

Now, with bye teams sitting at 0-6, the question is unavoidable: does the playoff seeding need to be fixed? The idea behind the bye was to reward elite teams, but the extended time off may be doing the opposite, killing momentum instead of protecting it.

The only chance to slow the narrative now rests with Indiana and Georgia. If both win tonight, the conversation cools slightly. If not, the CFP may be forced to rethink whether rest is really an advantage or a liability.

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Staff Writer