We are about a week away from the second edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the matchups deliver exactly what the sport sells best. But the noise around the bracket has little to do with excitement and everything to do with doubt. The question lingering is not who will win, but who should have been here, because even with expansion, the field still feels unfinished when it was supposed to bring clarity.
Indiana finished undefeated. Ohio State and Georgia looked dominant but flawed. Texas Tech may have surprised some, but they have arguably the most well-funded roster in college football, a reflection of how modern investment now translates directly into competitive balance. And behind them sat a cluster of programs with resumes strong enough to climb into any postseason.
But in a 12-team playoff world, most of those programs remain stuck on the outside.
Growing up in the pre-BCS era, I know all about mythical national champions. I watched seasons end with arguments instead of answers. When the CFP expanded from four to 12 teams, I believed those days were behind us. They are not. And the events of 2025 proved it as clearly as any season since the playoff began.
What makes March Madness beloved is simple. Most any team can win a game. UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson showed that a 16 seed can shock the world. St. Peters reached the Elite Eight as a 15 seed. The tournament works because it actually invites every team that can realistically win a game.
College football does not.
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Teams capable of making championship runs are missing from the field. Two years in a row, a two-loss BYU team has been left out. Last year’s national runner up Notre Dame was left out. Vanderbilt, with arguably the most exciting quarterback in the country, Diego Pavia, was passed over for a three-loss Alabama team. Utah, at 10-2, was barely part of the conversation.
One model under discussion would use five automatic qualifiers and 11 at large selections tied to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC. Notre Dame has reportedly secured language ensuring that if the Irish appear in the top 12 of the CFP rankings, they cannot be excluded in future playoff fields.
Even under that expanded setup, access remains tight. Group of Five programs are still in a tough spot while major conference teams still fight over razor thin margins.
Calendar constraints add another complication. If conferences insist on keeping championship games, expansion beyond 16 teams becomes nearly impossible. Remove championship weekend and the sport could grow to as many as 32 teams. In that model, finalists would play 17 games, semifinalists 16, and everyone else 15 or fewer. Those workloads are already familiar to the FCS.
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Another option is a 24 team playoff based solely on final CFP rankings with no automatic qualifiers. Using this season’s distribution, the field would still lean heavily toward the SEC and Big Ten, but it would finally reflect the reality of the sport instead of protecting conference interests.
That said, a 32 team bracket introduces major television challenges. March Madness thrives because viewers bounce between games. Football cannot replicate that cleanly. A 16 game opening round would likely begin midweek, run doubleheaders through Friday, and culminate with a massive Saturday slate. It becomes more of a festival than a playoff.
Realistically, the workable formats are 24 or 28 teams. A 24 team bracket provides eight byes. A 24 team bracket provides four. Both fit the calendar and both could incorporate even more bowl games if decision makers determine that neutral sites make more sense than campus locations in the early rounds.
How will this all get resolved?
The most likely outcome is a compromise rather than a clean victory for any one conference or vision. The two most realistic formats appear to be the following.
24 team model with automatic qualifiers
6 Big Ten and SEC
4 ACC and Big 12
2 Group of Five/Six
1 Notre Dame (if ranked)
1 at large
28 team model with automatic qualifiers
7 Big Ten and SEC
5 ACC and Big 12
2 Group of Five/Six
1 Notre Dame (if ranked)
1 at large
Conference interests are protected and the door is held slightly more open for smaller conference schools. Here’s how these brackets would have looked this year.
24 Team College Football Playoff
Teams Selected
Big Ten (6)
Indiana
Ohio State
Oregon
USC
Michigan
Iowa
SEC (6)
Georgia
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Alabama
Texas
ACC (4)
Miami
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Duke
Big 12 (4)
Texas Tech
BYU
Utah
Arizona
Group of Five (2)
James Madison
Tulane
Independent
Notre Dame
At Large (1) SEC
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is the highest ranked remaining at large team after conference allotments are filled.
Seeding Based on CFP Ranking Order
Top 8 Seeds and Byes
1 Indiana
2 Ohio State
3 Georgia
4 Texas Tech
5 Oregon
6 Ole Miss
7 Texas A&M
8 Oklahoma
First Round Matchups
9 Alabama vs 24 Tulane
10 Miami vs 23 Iowa
11 Notre Dame vs 22 Duke
12 BYU vs 21 Georgia Tech
13 Vanderbilt vs 20 James Madison
14 Utah vs 19 Virginia
15 USC vs 18 Michigan
16 Arizona vs 17 Texas
28 Team College Football Playoff
Teams Selected
Big Ten (7)
Indiana
Ohio State
Oregon
USC
Michigan
Iowa
Washington
Washington is selected over Illinois based on head to head results.
SEC (7)
Georgia
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Alabama
Texas
Vanderbilt
ACC (5)
Miami
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Duke
SMU
Big 12 (5)
Texas Tech
BYU
Utah
Arizona
Houston
Group of Five (2)
James Madison
Tulane
Independent
Notre Dame
At Large (1) Group of Five
North Texas
Seeding Based on CFP Ranking Order
Top 4 Seeds and Byes
1 Indiana
2 Ohio State
3 Georgia
4 Texas Tech
Opening Round Matchups
5 Oregon vs 28 North Texas
6 Ole Miss vs 27 SMU
7 Texas A&M vs 26 Duke
8 Oklahoma vs 25 Tulane
9 Alabama vs 24 James Madison
10 Miami vs 23 Iowa
11 Notre Dame vs 22 Houston
12 BYU vs 21 Georgia Tech
13 Vanderbilt vs 20 Virginia
14 Utah vs 19 Michigan
15 USC vs 18 Arizona
16 Texas vs 17 Washington
The playoff is going to grow. That part is settled. What remains unsettled is how much structure will come with it, and how many deserving teams will still find themselves just outside the gate.