No. 10 Notre Dame is the last at-large team in the College Football Playoff field, according to the next-to-last College Football Playoff rankings.
Will the Irish stay there after conference championship weekend? It’s bound to be one of the hottest debates of the final weekend of the 2025 college football regular season. Notre Dame — an independent FBS team — could either benefit or lose out on a second straight College Football Playoff as a result.
The debate with Notre Dame (10-2) and No. 12 Miami (10-2) is one piece of that conversation. Will it rekindle one more time ahead of the final CFP rankings on Sunday? The Irish, however, will keep an eye on the Big 12 championship game between No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1) and No. 11 BYU (11-1) and the SEC championship game between No. 3 Georgia (11-1) and No. 10 Alabama (10-2) just to be sure.
Get ready to argue. Notre Dame’s playoff seeding could vary widely based on the result of this weekend’s matchups. Here’s a look at the Irish’s College Football Playoff outlook heading into selection weekend.
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Is Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff?
Not yet. Notre Dame has a compelling case as a 10-2 team heading into the final weekend, but the debate with Miami continues. The Hurricanes beat the Irish 27-24 in the season opener, and the teams have comparable strength of schedules and common opponents because of Notre Dame’s arrangement with the ACC.
Notre Dame has maintained the upper hand in the CFP rankings throughout the process, but could that argument heat up one more time? Just because the Irish are ranked ahead of the Hurricanes now does not mean that will be the case in the final rankings, especially since neither team plays on conference championship weekend. We still think the Irish will stay ahead of Miami, but it’s best if they are not ranked back-to-back in the final rankings.
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Notre Dame playoff scenarios
Here is a look at how Notre Dame's College Football Playoff seeding could be impacted by the other conference championship games on Sunday:
Texas Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 championship game
This would eliminate the two-loss Cougars from the CFP picture. It also would put Notre Dame and Miami back-to-back in the final CFP rankings if Alabama beats Georgia, but that is worth the risk. Why?
BYU beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game
This is a worst-case result for the Irish. Texas Tech and BYU likely both make the College Football Playoff in that case, and a two-loss Red Raiders' team is unlikely to fall past No. 10. It's possible they could drop behind the Irish, but a six-spot drop in the rankings would be harsh for a team that finished 11-1 in the regular season. For example, SMU fell from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings last season after losing to Clemson in the ACC championship game. If BYU and Alabama win, then Notre Dame could be pushed out of that No. 10 spot.
Alabama beats Georgia in SEC championship game
This would keep the Crimson Tide ahead of Notre Dame in the rankings. Alabama could jump to as high as No. 4 and get a first-round bye if the Crimson Tide beats Georgia for the second time this season.
Georgia beats Alabama in SEC championship game
This would benefit the Irish. Alabama would have three losses and would likely at the minimum switch spots with Notre Dame in the final rankings. Notre Dame fans should be rooting for Georgia to win. The margin of victory does not matter.
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Does the ACC championship game impact Notre Dame's CFP chances?
No. 17 Virginia might be the better option for the Irish here — and for a strange reason. The Cavaliers would guarantee the ACC a College Football Playoff team.
What happens if Duke wins? That would put the ACC in danger of not having a CFP team. The winner of No. 20 Tulane and No. 24 Texas in the American Conference championship game is in. No. 25 James Madison would be the fifth-highest ranked team out of the Sun Belt if the Dukes beat Troy in the Sun Belt championship game.
That would mean the ACC would run a strong campaign for Miami to be the final at-large team, and the committee might swap the Hurricanes and Irish at that point. Don’t think it’s possible? Remember what happened with Florida State in 2023? Don't rule anything out.
College Football Playoff bracket 2025
Notre Dame is the No. 10 seed and would have a rematch with No. 7 Texas A&M in the first round of the College Football Playoff, based on the latest CFP rankings.
