Why is Duke in the ACC championship game? Explaining standings tiebreaker that kept Miami out

It’s conference championship week, and several teams across the country are still looking to make a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.

One team that has already thrown a wrench into a neat and tidy CFP Selection Sunday, however, is Duke. Despite finishing the season 7-5, the Blue Devils qualified for the ACC title game and are now set to take on 10-2 Virginia.

Duke enters the game unranked by the CFP. With a win over the Cavaliers, the Blue Devils would create chaos inside the CFP field. So how does a five-loss team make a conference title game? It comes down to some pesky championship-game tiebreak procedures.

Here’s a look at how Duke made it to the ACC title game in Charlotte, N.C.

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Why is Duke in the ACC championship game?

It’s a great question, considering Duke has five losses, including two in the ACC to Georgia Tech and Virginia. Speaking of Virginia, the Cavaliers finished the season 7-1 in conference play, clinching a trip to Charlotte with a 27-7 win over Virginia Tech.

But heading into last week, the ACC featured a five-way tie for second place between Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU and Pitt. All five teams were 6-2 in the conference, with just one shared common opponent: 3-9 Syracuse.

But wait -- doesn’t head-to-head matter?

It does … usually. The problem is the Blue Devils did not play Miami, SMU or Pitt this season.

Last Saturday, Miami defeated Pitt 38-7, and Georgia Tech was finished with ACC games. Duke beat Wake Forest 49-32, and SMU could have clinched a trip to Charlotte with a road win over Cal.

Instead, the Bears upset the Mustangs 38-35, triggering the ACC’s tiebreaker procedures to determine the second team in the conference title game. In the event of a multi-team tie, the ACC uses conference opponent win percentage as the tiebreaker. Duke had the best mark, sending the five-loss Blue Devils to the game.

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Why is Miami not in the ACC championship game?

Miami was the favorite to win the ACC and earn a CFP berth this season. Entering with one of the most talented rosters in all of football, this looked to be head coach Mario Cristobal's best chance at winning the conference. 

But instead, Miami suffered two conference losses, to Louisville at home and on the road against SMU. Both losses dropped Miami to second place in the ACC, finishing with a 6-2 record in conference play.  

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Duke record vs. Miami record

Here's a look at how Duke and Miami's record stack up. As you can see, the Blue Devils have five losses, but three of those came in non-conference, to Illinois, Tulane and UConn. 

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ACC football standings 2025

Here's how the ACC shook out this year, featuring the five-way tie for second: 

ACC tiebreakers

The ACC did away with divisions last season, following the lead of several other conferences like the SEC and Big Ten.

Usually, the two teams with the highest percentage of wins during all regular-season ACC games to the game. But since there was a five-way tie for second, the ACC tiebreaker scenarios kicked in. Here's how those played out, via the ACC: 

Three (or More) Team Tie The three (or more)team tiebreaker procedure: 

a. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents. 

B. If all tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams. I. If all tied teams are not common opponents and no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, such team shall be eliminated and removed from the tie. 

C. Win-percentage against all common opponents. 

D. Win-percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage,with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish. 

E. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents. *

f. The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games. 

G. The participant shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee. 

*Tiebreaker that sent Duke to ACCG

The ACC put these tiebreaker rules in place in 2023. Unsurprisingly, ACC commissioner has already publicly started campaigning for Miami, clearly on the CFP bubble, to earn a bid, in addition to the winner of Saturday night's game. 

“I have conviction and confidence in our teams, starting with Miami,” Phillips said via the Associated Press. “The second piece of that is the Virginia-Duke winner should absolutely be in this College Football Playoff.”

If Duke defeats Virginia, it’s unlikely the committee would give the five-loss Blue Devils a spot. However, a Duke win could open the door for 10-2 Miami to earn a bid. Miami also has to contend with Notre Dame, which lost to the Hurricanes 27-24 in Week 1.

Miami’s playoff hopes largely depend on the outcome of two-loss Alabama in the SEC title game on Saturday, as well as the result of the Big 12 championship between 11-1 Texas Tech and BYU.

"We know the final rankings aren't until Sunday, so there's time for course correction by the committee," Phillips added of Miami. "The committee's made it clear that idle teams can move up in the final rankings. And we're going to continue our efforts, as there's no question Miami's a playoff team and they've earned a spot in the playoff."

While Miami certainly has a case for the playoff, if it hadn't lost to both Louisville and SMU, it would have no problems earning a bid. 

Duke is a 4-point underdog against Virginia for Saturday night's game.