Virginia is having an incredible season in 2025, sitting at 10-2 and just one win away from winning the ACC. The Cavaliers are playing in the ACC title game for the first time since 2019, and have reached 10 wins for the first time since 1989.
In the second-to-last College Football Playoff rankings, the Cavs checked in at No. 17 overall. The turnaround that head coach Tony Elliott has led following three straight losing seasons is massively impressive. Now, the Cavs can win their first outright ACC title in school history -- UVA tied for ACC titles in 1989 and 1995.
Let's take a look at whether UVA has a shot to make the CFP for the first time in school history.
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Is Virginia in the College Football Playoff?
Not quite, at this point. Virginia has to beat the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte, N.C. On Saturday night. Virginia would have faced SMU in that game, but the Mustangs losing 38-35 on the road to Cal sent the Blue Devils to the game instead.
At this point, Virginia isn't even the highest-ranked team inside the ACC. Miami is still ranked No. 12 overall by the CFP. But the Canes are likely to be eliminated from the playoff conversation this weekend, since Miami did not qualify for the ACC title game. But there's still room for a conversation surrounding Miami earning a bid if say Alabama gets blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game.
But for Virginia, just one game stands between the Cavs and the playoff. ESPN's playoff predictor gives UVA a 55% chance to earn a bid.
Virginia wins ACC title game
- With a win, Virginia gets a CFP bid as the ACC Champion
- The Cavs would likely take Miami's spot in the bracket, or even finish 11th or 12th.
Virginia is a 3.5-point favorite against Duke. The Cavs defeated the Blue Devils 34-17 in Durham earlier this season.
Virginia loses ACC title game
- With a loss, Virginia is out of the CFP
- UVA would finish as a three-loss, non-conference champion with zero wins against current CFP teams.
Not to mention losing to a Duke team with five losses wouldn't exactly create a lasting impression on the committee.
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