The College Football Playoff selection committee has rarely faced a more complicated decision than the one awaiting Sunday.
According to On3's Andy Staples, the chaos created during championship weekend has produced a three-team fight for two at-large bids. Whichever program misses the cut is bound to unleash outrage.
The drama centers on the No. 10 line of the projected field. BYU’s blowout loss to Texas Tech effectively removed the Cougars from consideration, leaving No. 9 Alabama, No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 12 Miami competing for two open spots.
While Miami trailed both teams in the rankings, Staples notes the Hurricanes share the same 10-2 record and nearly identical resume as Notre Dame, with the added bonus of a head-to-head win on Aug. 31.
Notre Dame has 10 straight victories and one of the strongest “eye test” cases in the nation. Alabama carries the best win of the trio, which is a road upset at Georgia on Sept. 27. But its resume also includes a season-opening blowout loss at Florida State and Saturday’s 28-7 defeat to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
Only two will get in. Staples argues that any combination will spark fury. Miami fans would revolt if Alabama and Notre Dame make it; Notre Dame fans would protest if Alabama and Miami jump them; and Alabama supporters would erupt if they fall behind two teams without comparable strength-of-schedule metrics.
“Someone is going to be furious,” Staples wrote, adding that the controversy is “a feature, not a bug” of the 12-team system. The angst, he said, underscores that the format provides a true tournament without becoming bloated.
Projected top seeds
Staples projects Indiana at No. 1 after its powerful 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, calling the Hoosiers a legitimate title contender. Georgia climbs to No. 2 after overwhelming Alabama, holding the Crimson Tide to minus-3 rushing yards. Ohio State falls to No. 3, while Texas Tech secures the final bye at No. 4 after “mushing” BYU for a second time.
Oregon lands at No. 5 and draws the most favorable first-round path, likely hosting either Duke or James Madison. Ole Miss is No. 6, benefitting from staff coming together after Lane Kiffin’s departure as former coordinator Pete Golding steps in and Charlie Weis Jr. Returns to call plays for the postseason.
Texas A&M checks in at No. 7 despite its coaching transition, while Oklahoma earns the No. 8 spot largely on the strength of its win at Alabama.
The bubble: Miami, Notre Dame and Alabama
Staples places Miami at No. 9, believing the head-to-head factor will carry weight if the Hurricanes and Irish appear side-by-side during deliberations. Notre Dame follows at No. 10, with Staples invoking his trademark “truth serum test” — imagining which team higher seeds would least want to face. In that scenario, he suggests coaches would rather draw Alabama.
Tulane sits at No. 11 after winning the American title, while Duke claims No. 12 following an overtime ACC Championship upset. Staples acknowledges the committee could instead elevate Sun Belt champion James Madison, which was ranked last week while Duke was not.
Projected First Four Out: Alabama, BYU, Texas, Vanderbilt.
Projected bracket
No. 12 Duke at No. 5 Oregon — winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl)
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss — winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M — winner vs. No. 2 Georgia (Orange Bowl)
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Oklahoma — winner vs. No. 1 Indiana (Rose Bowl)
Staples concludes that Sunday’s reveal will define which fan base spends the winter demanding Playoff expansion to 16.
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