How unpredictable has the 12-team College Football Playoff been so far?
Look at the CFP semifinal matchup at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 8. No. 10 Miami (12-2) – the last team into the field – is favored to make the CFP championship game. The Hurricanes face No. 6 Ole Miss (13-1) – a team whose coach Lane Kiffin left to take the LSU job before the playoff started. One of those teams will play for the national championship. We had the Rebels and Hurricanes as the lowest-ranked teams heading into the quarterfinal round.
The other semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 9 features the Big Ten chalk. No. 1 Indiana (14-0) and No. 5 Oregon (13-1) meet in a rematch of their regular-season thriller, and the conference is guaranteed a shot at the CFP championship as a result.
Each one of the four teams has a compelling reason to believe heading into the next round. This really does feel like March Madness now, right?
The CFP national championship game is Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Here is how those four teams stack up heading into the semifinal round.
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CFP semifinal matchups
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP | TIME | TV |
| Jan. 8 | Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal) | No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
| Jan. 9 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (semifinal) | No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Here is our look at our CFP rankings ahead of the semifinal matchups:
Ranking the 4 teams in the College Football Playoff
1. Indiana Hoosiers (14-0)
We live in a world where Indiana is heavily favored to win the CFP championship under second-year coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers throttled No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential behind a near-perfect performance from Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza (14 of 16, 192 yards, 3 TDs), a dominant running game and a disruptive defense led by linebacker Aiden Fisher. Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 11, and they look like the machine that Michigan was in 2023 and Ohio State was in 2024. The Hoosiers have a great chance to go 16-0 – and that defense has allowed just 23 points in four games since a 27-24 escape at Penn State on Nov. 8. How can you pick against the Hoosiers right now?
MORE: Rest vs. Rust? Indiana continues to smash narratives at Rose Bowl
2. Oregon Ducks (13-1)
The Ducks shut out No. 4 Texas Tech 23-0 in the Capital One Orange Bowl – a statement under coach Dan Lanning that this defense is good enough to win a national championship. Dante Moore has a 72.9% completion percentage for the season, and the Ducks get a rematch with the Hoosiers. Can Oregon run the ball a little better this time around? We do not anticipate Lanning's aggressive approach will change either. The Ducks were 4 of 8 on fourth-down conversions against the Red Raiders in the CFP semifinals. Oregon forced four turnovers with four sacks and seven tackles for loss – and freshman cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. Had two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Can they throw off the Hoosiers' rhythm in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl?
MORE: Early breakdown of the Indiana-Oregon Peach Bowl
3. Miami Hurricanes (12-2)
The Hurricanes give the ACC a team in the CFP semifinals. Rueben Bain Jr. And Akheem Mesidor lead a defense that has compiled 12 sacks in two games, and coach Mario Cristobal has built this team from the inside out with dominant offensive and defensive lines. That showed in the eye-opening 24-14 victory against No. 2 Ohio State in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Carson Beck has 12 TDs and one interception in his last five games, and the Hurricanes have a legitimate chance to break a national championship drought that extends back to the 2001 season. Miami allows just 13.8 points per game – which trails only Indiana among the CFP teams remaining. Can Miami knock the SEC out of the CFP?
4. Ole Miss Rebels (13-1)
The Rebels have the worst national championship odds, but they might have the most dynamic player in the field. Trinidad Chambliss passed for 362 yards in the 39-34 thriller against Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, and he took over the quarterfinal round. How many times have we watched a quarterback carry a team to a national championship in the CFP era? This is the most unlikely story since Ohio State's Cardale Jones in 2014 – and it's even more against the odds considering Chambliss played at Division II Ferris State before coming to Ole Miss. Pete Golding has done a masterful job keeping the coaching staff on task since Kiffin's departure, and the Rebels will carry the SEC banner now. They have a good chance of pulling this upset, too.
MORE: Early breakdown of the Miami-Ole Miss Fiesta Bowl
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