No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana: What's at stake in Big Ten championship, including Heisman, CFP seeds and more

Bill Bender

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana: What's at stake in Big Ten championship, including Heisman, CFP seeds and more image

© Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The Big Ten hasn't had a "Game of the Century" since the legendary showdown between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Michigan on Nov. 18, 2006

Who would have ever guessed Indiana would end the wait? No. 1 Ohio State faces No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Fox. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are the only two unbeaten teams remaining in the FBS. 

It's a rematch from last season. Ohio State – then No. 2 – beat Indiana – then No. 5 – 38-15 at Ohio Stadium on Nov. 23, 2024. 

"While that was not an enjoyable experience, it was an experience that was necessary for our growth and development to go into a hostile environment like Ohio State and play a team of that quality," Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said on a Zoom conference call with reporters Sunday. 

A lot has changed since then. Indiana is better, but so is Ohio State. The Big Ten championship, Heisman Trophy race and College Football Playoff seeding all will be impacted by what should be the best Big Ten championship game ever. Seriously, we mean that.

MORE: Picks against the spread for championship weekend

1. Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin for Heisman? 

The Heisman Trophy race features three players with favorable odds. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (+160) is the leader, followed by Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (+170) and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+220). Pavia isn't playing on conference championship weekend, so this is an opportunity for those Big Ten quarterbacks to break a drought that also goes back to 2006 when quarterback Troy Smith won the award for the Buckeyes. 

Sayin (184.8 passer rating) and Mendoza (183.7) are the two most-efficient quarterbacks in college football. 

Mendoza has led Indiana to game-winning TD drives in the fourth quarter against Iowa, No. 5 Oregon and Penn State on the road, and the last one against the Nittany Lions literally took the breath out of Fox announcer Gus Johnson. Receivers Omar Cooper Jr. (804 yards, 11 TDs) and Elijah Sarratt (650 yards, 11 TDs) have been fantastic, and Indiana ranks ninth in the FBS with 229.4 rushing yards per game. 

Mendoza has just as much help as Sayin, who is on pace to break the record for single-season completion percentage at 78.9%. Bo Nix set that record with a 77.4 mark at Oregon in 2023. Sayin also had 233 yards, 3 TDs and one interception in a 27-9 victory against Michigan on Nov. 29. Back-to-back performances on the big stage could swing the vote. Yes, receivers Jeremiah Smith (942 yards, 11 TDs) and Carnell Tate (793 yards, 8 TDs) are a huge part of that success, but Ohio State's last three Heisman finalist QBs – Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud – had awesome receivers, too. 

Fernando Mendoza vs. Julian Sayin: 2025 passing statistics

QUARTERBACKCOMPATT%YDSTDSINTSRATING
Fernando Mendoza211293722,758325183.7
Julian Sayin25832778.93,065305184.8

2. Which defense wins championships? 

Ohio State and Indiana have the top-two scoring defenses in the FBS. The Buckeyes allow 7.8 points per game under first-year defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. The Hoosiers are at 10.9 points per game under coordinator Bryant Haines. Everybody knows Patricia. This is a chance for Haines – a London, Ohio, native and former Ball State linebacker – to make a statement. 

The Hoosiers lead the FBS in turnover margin at plus-17 and are third in the FBS in tackles for loss per game (8.6). Ohio State allows the fewest plays per game (56.4) and leads the FBS in red-zone defense (65%). The Buckeyes (27.5%) and Hoosiers (27.7%) are second and third, respectively, in third down defense. 

Classic Big Ten games typically come down to the running game. Indiana's committee of Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black and Khobie Martin and Ohio State's tandem of Bo Jackson and CJ Donaldson face a challenge against two tough run defenses. 

It's so many context clues that tell you this could easily become a defensive struggle on a fast track.

MORE: Alabama is the elephant in the CFP committee room

3. Rose Bowl, College Football Playoff implications 

The winner of this matchup will be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, much like Oregon was after winning the Big Ten championship with a perfect 13-0 record last season. That means a trip to the Rose Bowl Game on Jan. 1 in the CFP quarterfinals. 

The Buckeyes won the Rose Bowl 41-21 last season as a No. 8 seed against the Ducks. Ohio State has never won the Rose Bowl in consecutive years despite 17 appearances. The Buckeyes have won 16 consecutive games dating back to last season's College Football Playoff championship run. 

"I know our guys are looking forward to it, going to Indy," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said Sunday. "It's been a long time since we've been to Indy. Too long. We're going to (Indy to) win the game. Great opponent."

Indiana, meanwhile, has not been to the Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1968; a 14-3 loss to No. 1 USC when the Hoosiers were ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll during the 1967 season. Ironically, Indiana did not play Ohio State that season. 

Ohio State vs. Indiana: Defensive stats

OHIO STATESTATINDIANA
7.8 (1st)PPG.10.9 (2nd)
203.0 (1st)TOTAL YDS251.8 (4th)
121.3 (1st)PASS YDS172.5 (14th)
81.7 (4th)RUSH YDS79.2 (2nd)
27.5% (3rd)3RD DOWN%27.7% (4th)
56.4 (1st)PLAYS PER GAME59.4 (4th)
3.7 (1st)YARDS PER PLAY4.5 (12th)
5 (34th)TURNOVER MARGIN17 (1st)

MORE: College Football Playoff forecast after Week 14 | Latest rankings

4. Curt Cignetti vs. Ryan Day 

Are these two of the three best coaches in college football right now? Georgia's Kirby Smart and Oregon's Dan Lanning also are in that conversation, but this is a premier coaching matchup.

"Ryan Day is a great coach," Cignetti said. "Going to be one of the legends of the game someday." 

Ohio State is 26-2 the last two seasons, and Day finally broke the four-game losing streak to Michigan. Cignetti is 23-2 since taking over at Indiana and has backed up the big talk from his introductory press conference. 

"He's adapted to modern times," Day said. "He certainly has taken a roster and turned it over quickly and brought in some really talented players."

This is an elite coaching matchup in every way as a result.

MORE: College football bowl projections

5. Best Big Ten championship game ever?  

Is this the best Big Ten championship game ever? The answer is "yes" even before the kickoff. The conference instituted a conference championship game in 2011, and this is the second one without divisions. No. 1 Oregon beat No. 3 Penn State 45-37 last season. 

This could be the best matchup since 2015 – when No. 5 Michigan State beat No. 3 Iowa 16-13 in a matchup where the Spartans were 11-1 and Hawkeyes were 12-0 coming into the game. It was a winner-take-all matchup for the four-team College Football Playoff era. 

The stakes are more forgiving here – both teams will make the CFP – but moving away from the East and West division format has helped the conference. From 2017-23, either Ohio State or Michigan won the conference championship game. Those five games were decided by an average of 19.7 points per game. Only one game was decided by single digits. 

This one should be better than that, one that is talked about in the same way that the last "Game of the Century" in the Big Ten between Ohio State and Michigan – a 42-39 instant classic is talked about to this day.

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