Mid-October always brings clarity or maybe chaos to the Group of Five. This season, it’s a little of both. Nine programs still carry one loss or fewer, clinging to mathematical hope that the road to the College Football Playoff will wind through their campus.
Some control their own fate. Others are hanging by a thread. But for now, they all still have a pulse.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis sits in pole position at 6-0, the only unbeaten AAC team without a ranked opponent left on the regular-season slate. The Tigers have outscored opponents 243-97 and look like the most complete Group of Five team in America.
If they keep handling business, there’s a clean shot to 12-0, and a invitation to the league title game with everything on the line. The schedule favors them. The efficiency speaks for itself. The path could not be clearer.
Navy Midshipmen
Navy’s 6-0 mark is admirable, but the calm waters end soon. The Midshipmen must navigate a brutal closing stretch with Notre Dame, Memphis, South Florida and more, before the December showdown with Army. The triple-option remains disciplined, but the margin for error is slim.
For Navy, the next six weeks will test whether steady execution can overcome pure schedule weight.
South Florida Bulls and Tulane Green Wave
South Florida (5-1) is alive and dangerous. The Bulls boast one of the nation’s most explosive attacks, averaging over 41 points per game, and they’ll host both Navy and Tulane in a two-week stretch that could define the AAC race.
More: Alex Golesh lead USF to win over North Texas
Tulane (5-1), meanwhile, faced a tough challenge at North Texas — and Coach Jon Sumrall was not happy about it. “We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games, and I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature,” he told ESPN postgame. “We’ve got to grow up fast.”
Still, the Green Wave have the skill, speed, and experience to be a major factor in how this all plays out. Their defense remains steady, and the November matchup with Memphis looms as the potential pivot point for the entire playoff picture.
North Texas Mean Green
Don’t dismiss North Texas (5-1, 1-1) just yet. They’ve piled up 260 points, the highest total among all Group of Five teams. The Mean Green aren’t favored to win the AAC, but the door isn’t locked.
Now a long shot, but if they find themselves at 11-1 and in the AAC Championship, they might just be a win away from the playoff. It’s not great odds, but they’re not out of it yet.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Out of Conference USA, Western Kentucky (5-1, 3-0) has a path — but it’s a murky one. Tyson Helton’s air-raid attack is again lethal, and the Hilltoppers haven’t slipped in league play. But the formula is unforgiving:
To be seriously considered for the Access-Bowl conversation, they’ll need to run the table and finish 12-1 with a C-USA Championship.
They’ll also need a little chaos — a bunch of losses scattered around the American Conference to thin out the competition. Without that, the numbers just won’t add up.
James Madison Dukes
James Madison (5-1, 3-0) is everything we’ve come to expect — suffocating on defense, mistake-free on offense, and relentless in execution. The Dukes have allowed only 31 points in three Sun Belt games, showcasing the same methodical discipline that defined their FCS dominance.
Still, they’re boxed out for now. For Bob Chesney’s squad to re-enter the New Year’s Six picture, they’ll need the American Conference top teams to cannibalize one another in the loss column. A wave of two-loss AAC contenders could crack the door open just wide enough for a 12-1 Sun Belt champ to slip through.
UNLV Rebels and San Diego State Aztecs
The Mountain West is alive and well. UNLV (6-0, 2-0) is the sport’s biggest surprise — balanced, confident, and unbeaten both home and away under Barry Odom.
San Diego State (5-1, 2-0) remains classic Aztecs: physical, deliberate, and suffocating on defense. They’ve allowed just 63 points all season, keeping them firmly in the Mountain West race and one statement win away from national consideration.
Looking Ahead
Next week brings movement potential, but the numbers suggest stability. UNLV will face a major test when the Rebels travel to Boise State, their toughest road date yet. Western Kentucky should roll on Tuesday night when it hosts FIU. James Madison welcomes an improved Old Dominion squad whose playoff dreams were dashed by a loss to Marshall on Saturday.
South Florida hosts 3-3 FAU, while Memphis travels to UAB in a trap-game spot. North Texas stays home to meet UTSA, and Tulane hosts Army at noon Saturday. Both San Diego State and Navy get a week to breathe.
Based on the schedule, there’s a strong likelihood we’ll still have nine teams in contention this time next week.
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