Just five ‘Group of Five’ schools remain alive for the college football playoffs

Brian Schaible

•

Just five ‘Group of Five’ schools remain alive for the college football playoffs image

When we started tracking the Group of Five contenders weeks ago, we made the assumption that no two-loss team, outside a power conference, would be considered for the College Football Playoffs. The main reason is this has never happened before.

We are still likely headed in that direction, but because of how competitive the American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West races have been, there is a growing chance that a two-loss conference champion could wind up as the highest-ranked Group of Five representative. If that happens, programs like Tulane, South Florida, Southern Mississippi, and UNLV may not be officially eliminated just yet.

However, before getting too bogged down in hypothetical November chaos, let’s focus on the more realistic scenarios—the five Group of Five teams that still control their fate with fewer than two losses entering Week 11.

American Conference

North Texas (8-1)

The Mean Green have become the heartbeat of this year’s playoff chase. What started as a September curiosity is now a November storyline that feels impossible to ignore. Eric Morris’ team has surged to 8-1 with a mix of efficiency and attitude, their signature moment coming in a 31-17 win over previously unbeaten Navy.

The remaining schedule offers UNT a great opportunity to run the table. North Texas closes at Rice, at UAB, and then at home against Temple on November 28th. Those are three winnable games, and the formula is simple. Win out, finish 11-1, reach the American Conference championship, and the Mean Green would carry the Group of Five banner into the final playoff debate.

Memphis (8-1)

The Tigers’ only setback came in mid-October, a 31-24 loss at UAB that briefly slowed their rise but did not derail it. Ryan Silverfield’s team still controls its destiny to reach the conference title game, though the road ahead is steep. Memphis faces Tulane on November 7th, East Carolina on November 15th, and closes with Navy on Thanksgiving weekend—a stretch that will decide everything.

Navy (7-1)

The Midshipmen’s perfect start came to an end in Denton, but the larger challenge is still in front of them. At 7-1 and first in the American, Navy remains in control of its championship path, yet the next month brings nothing but rough seas.

Brian Newberry’s team heads to Notre Dame on November 8th for a national-stage test before returning home to face South Florida on November 15th. Then comes the all-important conference trip to Memphis on Thanksgiving weekend, followed by the annual rivalry clash with Army on December 13th.

The formula is clear but challenging. If Navy can survive November, they could become the first service academy to qualify for the CFP.

Mountain West Conference

San Diego State (7-1)

San Diego State continues to look like the best of the Mountain West after a 24-7 win over Wyoming. The Aztecs rushed for 175 yards behind Lucky Sutton’s 158-yard performance while the defense smothered the Cowboys. Quarterback Jayden Denegal threw for 194 yards, including a 24-yard touchdown pass, as Sean Lewis’ group stayed firmly in the thick of the Group of Five race.

A conference championship at 12-1 could vault them past a two-loss American champion for the New Year’s Six spot and give them a legitimate shot at the playoff.

Sun Belt Conference

James Madison (7-1)

James Madison has quietly steadied itself after an early stumble and looks like the Sun Belt’s best chance for the CFP. The Dukes sit 7-1 and first in the East, with everything still in front of them.

The next four weeks will decide whether they can make it to the conference championship. The stretch begins at Marshall on November 8th, followed by home games against Appalachian State and Washington State before closing at Coastal Carolina.

I’m not sure Bob Chesney’s squad were thinking about CFP possibilities at the start of the year, but here we are. They’ll need help and they’ll need to keep on winning. There’s a path for JMU, it’s just a little more treacherous than the other four one-loss teams.