Just a few weeks remain until the 2025 College Football Playoff first-round games kick off. Yet at least one spot in the bracket still appears fully up for grabs.
In 2024, the Group of 5 automatic bid was a fairly easy call. Boise State cruised to the playoff behind star running back Ashton Jeanty. But in 2025, the spot reserved for the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion has been far murkier. In each of the committee's first three rankings, they projected three different squads — Tulane, South Florida and Memphis — to be the No. 12 seed representing the Group of 5. Tulane held onto that spot in the most recent rankings.
After Week 14, we are down to three contenders -- James Madison from the Sun Belt and Tulane and North Texas from the American. James Madison will face Troy (8-4, 6-2) in the Sun Belt championship, while Tulane and North Texas will play in the American championship.
What is each top Group of 5 squad’s path to the CFP? Here’s a breakdown of the Week 14 matchup for each team, their playoff chances and the standings in the American and Sun Belt conferences.
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Group of 5 CFP scenarios 2025
Here's a look at chances, Week 14 matchup and other details for each top Group of 5 CFP contender.
James Madison (11-1, 8-0 in Sun Belt Conference)
In Week 14, James Madison beat Coastal Carolina 59-10 to finish the regular season undefeated in league play. James Madison is ranked No. 20 in the AP poll, the highest Group of 5 team, but they are unranked in the CFP poll.
The Dukes' lone loss came to a Power 4 team, Louisville, in a 28-14 Week 2 defeat. They haven't faced any other power conference squads, but have won every other game this season. JMU having one loss is what matters the most for its playoff chances; should the Dukes win out, including a Sun Belt championship, the committee will have to at least consider them as the 12th seed. From there, it's about their judgements on which American Conference champion JMU is bidding against for the playoff spot.
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North Texas (11-1, 7-1 in American Conference)
North Texas is seeking its first conference title since 2004, currently with a stronger chance to make the CFP. While head coach Eric Morris is set to leave North Texas for Oklahoma State when the 2025 season ends, the Mean Green may still have some bigger noise to make.
In Week 14, the Mean Green beat Temple 52-25 on Friday.
Should the Mean Green win the American Conference with one loss, it will be in the committee's hands to decide between them and James Madison, assuming the Dukes also win the Sun Belt. Both North Texas, the American Conference favorite, and James Madison, the Sun Belt favorite, have just one loss this season.
The simplest playoff path for North Texas is to beat Temple, beat Tulane in the AAC championship, and for James Madison to lose a game.
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Tulane (10-2, 7-1 in American Conference)
The other two teams listed face slightly tougher paths to the playoff, simply because they've already lost two games this season. In other words, they will likely need help from James Madison and/or North Texas losing a game, one way or another.
Tulane is still in the running for the playoff though, especially given the fact that the committee has shown the squad recent favor. I n the most recent CFP rankings, Tulane was ranked 24th as the projected No. 12 seed. The Green Wave will face Charlotte in Week 14, a game they virtually have to win for playoff purposes. If Tulane wins, and either Navy or North Texas lose in Week 14, the Green Wave will play in the American Conference championship and keep their playoff hopes alive.
If Tulane proceeded to win the conference title, it would have a potentially convincing argument over projected Sun Belt champ James Madison; not only do the Green Wave have Power 4 wins over Northwestern and Duke, but they would then hypothetically have beaten another top G5 contender in North Texas/Navy in the conference championship.
Put simply, if Tulane makes and wins the conference title game, it has a pretty good shot at the CFP thanks to its slightly stronger wins over JMU, despite two losses. The committee has already shown its favor for the Green Wave.
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Which Group of 5 team would currently make the CFP?
In the most recent rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 25, the committee ranked Tulane as the No. 24 squad and the the projected No. 12 seed for the second-straight week, maintaining its status as the top G5 squad according to the committee.
The Green Wave, despite having two losses, were again given the nod over one-loss James Madison and North Texas.