The Group of 5 still belongs in CFP despite Tulane, James Madison blowouts – but with a tweak

The Group of 5 arrangement with the College Football Playoff became one of the most polarizing topics ahead of the weekend's first-round games. 

Nick Saban lit the fuse with an unflattering comparison on "The Pat McAfee Show" for No. 11 Tulane – the American Conference champion – and No. 12 James Madison – the Sun Belt champion. 

"Would we allow the winner of the Triple-A baseball league — the International League, I don't even know the name of it — would you let them in the World Series?" Saban asked McAfee. "That's the equivalent of what we do when JMU gets in the Playoff, and Notre Dame doesn't."

Were Saban's comments insulting? Sure. Was there some truth to it? Triple-A baseball is a poor analogy because the New York Yankees don't play the Columbus Clippers in the regular season. But we saw what we saw – if you watched into the second half – on Saturday. 

No. 6 Ole Miss shredded No. 11 Tulane 41-10 in a rematch from a 45-10 blowout on Sept. 20. No. 5 Oregon hammered No. 12 James Madison 51-34. Neither game was competitive, and that is only going to add fuel to this argument in an I-told-you-so fashion from South Bend to Provo.

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How have Group of 5 teams fared in College Football Playoff? 

Not well. Group of 5 schools are now 0-4 in the College Football Playoff, and they lost those games by an average of 21.5 points per game.

No. 1 Alabama beat No. 4 Cincinnati 27-6 in the four-team era. No. 6 Penn State beat No. 3 Boise State 31-14 last season. The Bearcats had just 218 total yards against the Crimson Tide. The Broncos were down 10 points heading into the fourth quarter before the Nittany Lions pulled away. 

Ole Miss hammered Tulane, and the Ducks routed the Dukes. At this point, it has to be acknowledged that from a competitive standpoint it would have been more entertaining to watch No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 12 BYU in those first-round matchups. That is not debatable. 

Group of 5 schools have struggled in New Year's Day Six bowls or CFP games since No. 12 UCF beat No. 7 Auburn 34-26 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 1, 2018. The Knights claimed their own national championship afterward. 

The Group of 5 schools have a 1-8 record in these games ever since. A look at those results.

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Do Group of 5 teams belong in the College Football Playoff?

Yes. When the CFP expands to 16 teams, it's OK to keep a Group of 5 team in the College Football Playoff in that format, too. Does there need to be two? No.

What is the major compromise? Get rid of the "five highest-ranked conference champions" rule. We're OK with getting rid of conference championship games, too, and the top 16 teams should go with the caveat that at least one Group of 5 team should get in even if they are ranked outside the top 16.

If that were the case this year, then No. 20 Tulane would have bumped No. 16 USC out of a 16-team CFP. Using that logic in a 12-team format, Notre Dame would have been in the CFP ahead of James Madison. There would have been considerably less complaining this weekend if that were the case. 

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Should the Group of 5 do a separate College Football Playoff? 

No. Boise State was a great story last season with Heisman Trophy runner up Ashton Jeanty. Tulane and James Madison got to celebrate a season their fan-bases will never forget this season despite Saturday's results. As a graduate of Ohio University in the Mid-American Conference, I get this question all the time. 

Would you rather watch the Bobcats as a No. 12 seed in the CFP or have the chance to win a separate national championship in what would amount to a second division within the FBS? Both sides have merit, but the illusion of an upset against a Big Ten or SEC powerhouse is too much to pass up, and I’ve watched the Bobcats win three first-round games in the NCAA basketball tournament since 2010 – once as a No. 14 seed and twice as a No. 13. 

If Ohio ever makes the CFP, then I'm going as a fan. Speaking of March Madness … 

Are Group of 5 CFP teams comparable to March Madness Cinderellas? 

No. Fox analyst Joel Klatt went too far in criticizing the NCAA men's basketball tournament. We love March Madness – but not for the same reasons as football. 

Cinderellas are easier to find and even easier to embrace in basketball – and there have been more of them in the NIL era. In the last five NCAA tournaments, teams seeded No. 12-16 have won 12 first-round games out of 100. That list includes No. 12 James Madison – which beat No. 5 Wisconsin 72-61 in the 2024 NCAA men's basketball tournament.         

Group of 5 schools are 1-5 in New Year's Day Six or CFP games since NIL started in 2021 – with the only win coming when No. 16 Tulane beat No. 10 USC 46-45 in the Cotton Bowl Classic on Jan. 2, 2023. That was not a CFP game either, so it does not register quite the same. The other five losses are by an average of 25 points per game. We think this gap will continue to grow, too.

If a Group of 5 team won in the 12 or 16 team format, it would register more than a first-round upset in the NCAA tournament. Why? Because we're not sure they will win 12 of the next 100 games in this format.

After watching Saturday's games, we would settle for one.