Despite finishing the season 7-5, the Duke Blue Devils have managed to make it into the ACC title game. Last week, the ACC had a five-way tie for second place between Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU and Pitt.
Duke was rewarded with an ACC title game berth thanks to the Blue Devils having a better conference opponent winning percentage than Miami, SMU, Pitt and Georgia Tech. Had SMU not lost on the road to Cal, the Mustangs would have gone instead.
But here we are, with a five-loss Duke team on the brink of creating CFP chaos. Let's break down what happens with a Duke victory over UVA on Saturday night.
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Is Duke in the College Football Playoff with a victory?
I'd like to think that Duke fans are smart enough to know this, but there is absolutely zero chance. The committee will not give a bid to a five-loss team, period. Not to mention the Blue Devils weren't even ranked in the latest CFP rankings, so them being included as one of the five highest conference ranked champions seems like quite the longshot.
The Blue Devils are a slight 3.5-point underdog to the Cavs, but Virginia is expected to win. UVA defeated Duke just three weeks ago, 34-17.
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Which teams are helped by an ACC victory?
Duke beating Virginia can really only help other teams. In fact, several teams should be rooting for the Blue Devils to win on Saturday. Let's run through which teams would be helped the most by a Duke victory.
JMU, North Texas
Duke winning could open the door for two Group of Five schools to earn bids. With Tulane (No. 20) ranked as the highest Group of Five team in the penultimate rankings, James Madison could benefit from a Duke victory. If the Dukes defeat Troy in the Sun Belt title game, JMU will finish 12-1. The committee could give the Dukes a bid as one of the highest-ranked conference champions.
Tulane plays No. 24 North Texas on Friday. If the Mean Green knock off the Green Wave, paired with a Duke victory, that could make the case for North Texas to earn a bid. Although it seems unlikely, the committee could value two G5 schools for playing and winning their respective conference title games.
Miami
It's hard to pick a team that would be helped more with a Duke win than No. 11 Miami. The Canes missed out on the ACC title game thanks to a tiebreaker, but also due to losses to Louisville and Cal. Although Miami is expected to be replaced by Virginia if they win the ACC, Duke winning the title could help Miami squeak in. One of the Canes' signature wins came in Week 1, over current playoff team Notre Dame.
Notre Dame
Speaking of the Irish! Notre Dame does not play in a conference, so the Fighting Irish will not be playing a game this weekend. Instead, ND will hope its 10-2 record, including a 10-game win streak dating back to Sept. 20 will suffice. The Fighting Irish's other loss came to Texas A&M, also expected to earn a bid. A Duke win likely further solidifies ND getting a bid. But if BYU defeats Texas Tech, that could knock ND out entirely.
BYU
BYU is also currently on the CFP bubble, despite ranking 11th in the latest rankings, and sitting at 11-1. The best shot for the Cougars to earn a bid is by defeating Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game to earn an automatic berth. Texas Tech would likely still be safely in the field, as well.
If BYU loses to Tech but Duke beats Virginia, the committee would have to compare the resumes of Miami, Notre Dame and BYU to determine who gets a bid. BYU seems behind the Canes and Irish, as things stand now.
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