Why Duke, other conference champions are not guaranteed a playoff spot in college football

Dan Treacy

Why Duke, other conference champions are not guaranteed a playoff spot in college football image

While Miami and Florida State looked like surefire national contenders after Week 1 wins, the ACC came down to Duke and Virginia on Saturday night, with the Blue Devils capturing the conference title. 

While the other three Power Four conference champions are all ticketed for first-round byes in the College Football Playoff, the consensus after Duke's win was that the Blue Devils wouldn't get in at all.

It was the Dukes of James Madison, rather than Duke itself, that stood to gain the most from the ACC championship game, with Duke's win potentially clearing the way for a second Group of Five conference champion to sneak into the field.

Here's what you need to know about conference champions in the College Football Playoff and what put the ACC's spot in jeopardy. 

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Are conference champions guaranteed a playoff spot?

Only the five highest-ranked conference champions in the FBS earn an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. While one would assume that would typically be each of the Power Four champions and the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, Duke turned the system upside down this season by winning the ACC with five losses.

Because the Blue Devils suffered so much in non-conference games, they entered championship week ranked behind both American Conference champion Tulane and Sun Belt champion James Madison. While Duke's win over Virginia certainly counts for something, it would be hard to justify the committee suddenly rocketing the 8-5 Blue Devils ahead of 12-1 James Madison.

Theoretically, no conference is assured of a playoff berth. That means the SEC's champion could hypothetically be left out if it wasn't one of the five highest-ranked conference winners. Of course, that scenario is beyond far-fetched. The ACC believed it was far-fetched, too, until Duke snuck into the conference title game over 10-win Miami through a tiebreaker. 

Highest-ranked conference champsAt-large candidates
No. 1 Indiana (13-0)No. 3 Ohio State (12-1)
No. 2 Georgia (12-1)No. 5 Oregon (11-1)
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)
No. 17 Tulane (11-2)No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)
No. 19 James Madison (12-1)No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)
 No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2)
 No. 10 Miami (10-2)
 No. 11 Alabama (10-3)

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College football conference championship game results

Here's a look at each of the conference championship game final scores:

ConferenceResult
SECGeorgia 28, Alabama 7
Big TenIndiana 13, Ohio State 10
Big 12Texas Tech 34, BYU 7
ACCDuke 27, Virginia 20 (OT)
AmericanTulane 34, North Texas 21
Sun BeltJames Madison 31, Troy 14
Mountain WestBoise State 38, UNLV 21
MACWestern Michigan 23, Miami OH 13
Conference USAKennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15

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College Football Playoff ranking projections 

Here are the final College Football Playoff projections, according to SN's Bill Bender, with James Madison projected to receive a bid over Duke.

SeedTeamRecord
1Indiana13-0
2Georgia12-1
3Ohio State12-1
4Texas Tech12-1
5Oregon11-1
6Ole Miss11-1
7Texas A&M11-1
8Oklahoma10-2
9Notre Dame10-2
10Miami10-2
11Tulane11-2
12James Madison12-1

Do conference championships affect playoffs?

Conference championships can affect the College Football Playoff bracket in more ways than one.

On one hand, five conference winners receive an automatic bid to the playoff, making conference title games a de facto play-in game. While some title game competitors, such as Ohio State and Georgia, are already safely in the field regardless of whether they win or lose, a team such as Virginia knew Saturday night that its only hope of making the playoff relied on winning the ACC.

Can a team fall out of the playoff with a loss in its conference championship game? The committee is on the record saying a conference championship loss won't seriously impact a team unless that loss isn't competitive. SMU remained in the field in 2024 after a narrow loss to Clemson in the ACC championship, while Alabama faces the same question this year after a largely uncompetitive loss to Georgia.

What conference is Miami in?

Miami is in the ACC and finished tied with the second-best record in conference play, but the Hurricanes missed out on a trip to the conference title game because of a tiebreaker disadvantage against Duke. 

What conference is Indiana in?

Indiana is in the Big Ten and won the conference with a 13-10 victory over Ohio State on Saturday night. The Hoosiers, a surprise champion after entering the season with fairly distant odds behind Ohio State, Oregon and more, will be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.

Why isn't Notre Dame in a conference?

Even in an everchanging college football landscape, Notre Dame has remained out of a conference because its brand and lucrative TV deal with NBC are enough to sustain the program.

The Fighting Irish still play plenty of opponents from Power Four conferences, but the brand and the resources that come from the TV deal allow the program to fill seats, make money that can be spent on NIL deals and field a national contender. Until that changes, it's hard to imagine a reason for Notre Dame to alter its stance.

Not playing in a conference hurt Notre Dame for one year, as the original 12-team playoff format mandated that the top four seeds all be conference champions, making the No. 5 seed the highest the Irish could possibly be ranked. In 2025, the format was tweaked so the four highest-ranked teams would receive a bye regardless of whether they won a conference title. 

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