Texas A&M lost for the first time all season on Friday night, and the ramifications are significant all around.
While the Aggies can comfortably expect to be in the College Football Playoff, their SEC title hopes were dashed by their in-state rivals, putting their chances of securing a bye at risk.
For Texas, the win will be a tool for coach Steve Sarkisian to use in making the case that the Longhorns should be a playoff team. While Texas won’t get to compete for an SEC championship, Sarkisian believes his team is one of the best in the loaded conference and deserves a chance to make a championship run.
Here’s a look at how Texas A&M’s loss impacts the Aggies, the Longhorns and four more teams in the College Football Playoff picture.
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Texas A&M playoff outlook
Texas A&M can still expect to safely be included in the College Football Playoff field, but the Aggies' chances of a first-round bye are at risk after Friday's loss. Here's a look at how it could shake out.
How far could Texas A&M fall?
Texas A&M is certainly locked into the playoff as a one-loss SEC team, but the loss to Texas could knock them out of a top-four seed and first-round bye.
The Aggies were already ranked No. 3 behind Ohio State and Indiana. While one of those teams will have to take a loss by the time the playoff is seeded, Texas A&M is unlikely to surpass them without an SEC championship. Meanwhile, a one-loss SEC champion figures to leapfrog the Aggies in the final rankings; how the committee would treat a two-loss SEC champion Alabama isn't clear.
Whether Texas A&M falls below No. 4 could come down to how Texas Tech finishes its season. A 12-1 Big 12 champion Red Raiders team could jump the 11-1 Aggies without a conference title, particularly because Texas A&M doesn't have wins over most of the SEC's heavy hitters such as Georgia, Ole Miss or Alabama.
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Texas playoff outlook
Texas’ playoff chances still likely rely on serious help on Saturday. While a win over the Aggies is a boost to their résumé, the Longhorns entered the week ranked No. 16 in a field that saw the Nos. 11 and 12 teams left out of the projected bracket due to the inclusion of the ACC champion and the top Group of Five team.
Even if Texas jumps Utah, Miami or BYU, the Longhorns would still need another team to drop out of the current playoff field — whether that is Alabama, Oklahoma, Notre Dame or Oregon. And even if one of those teams does lose on Saturday, there’s no guarantee it would fall out altogether or that Texas would be the team to jump into the field.
What Texas A&M loss means for Georgia
Georgia's path forward became much clearer after Texas' win, as the Bulldogs clinched a spot in the SEC championship game.
At 11-1, it's hard to imagine a loss to either Alabama or Ole Miss would seriously damage Georgia's playoff seeding, but a win would guarantee Kirby Smart's team a first-round bye. Georgia was already ranked No. 4 in the country, figures to slide up to No. 3 in place of Texas A&M and, in that case, would be the No. 3 seed at minimum with a win in the SEC championship game.
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What Texas A&M loss means for Alabama
Alabama controlled its own fate in the battle to reach the SEC championship regardless of what Texas A&M did on Friday, so not much will change for the Crimson Tide.
A loss to Auburn on Saturday likely takes Alabama out of the playoff, which helps Texas, but the Tide were likely to be jumped in that scenario regardless of whether the Longhorns won.
A third loss in the SEC championship game likely won't hurt as much, but it's now the Georgia Bulldogs who will be on the other side if Alabama reaches the conference title game, rather than Texas A&M.
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What Texas A&M loss means for Ole Miss
Ole Miss needed both Texas A&M and Alabama to lose to reach the SEC title game, so the Rebels' path to Atlanta remains alive, even with the Crimson Tide favored against Auburn on Saturday.
A win on Friday amid the noise of Lane Kiffin's potential departure effectively locked Ole Miss into the playoff, so Texas A&M's loss doesn't impact the Rebels' standing in that regard, but the potential for a first-round bye remains if Ole Miss can sneak into the SEC championship and win it.
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What Texas A&M loss means for Texas Tech
Texas Tech's path to a first-round bye became a bit clearer on Friday. The Red Raiders entered the week ranked No. 5 in the country and just need to jump one team to earn a top-four seed.
Could a 12-1 record and Big 12 championship be enough for Texas Tech to jump an 11-1 Texas A&M team that didn't make its conference title game? It's certainly possible, if not likely, because the Aggies can't claim a massive strength of schedule gap without having faced Alabama, Georgia or Ole Miss this season.
If Texas Tech takes care of business and wins its next two games, a No. 4 or even No. 3 seed is well within reach.