It would seem logical for a 10-2 team in a Power 4 conference to be a lock for the College Football Playoff.
The 2025 season, however, has been anything but logical—and that should serve as a warning for contenders heading into Rivalry Week. Sixteen teams in the Power 4 have two losses or fewer heading into the final week of the regular season. That number increases to 17 when you include Notre Dame.
There are even more complications. Miami—the highest-ranked ACC team in the CFP rankings and at the center of a heated debate with Notre Dame—needs help to reach the ACC championship game. Meanwhile, three-loss teams such as SMU and Pitt could still make that same ACC title game. The American Conference champion, or James Madison, will take a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
UPDATED SCENARIOS: ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
Not everyone is going to get a seat. How crazy could the music get? Let's throw a few upsets out there. What if Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State and Georgia loses to Georgia Tech? That could give the SEC five two-loss teams.
What if Michigan beats Ohio State and Washington beats Oregon? That would give the Big Ten a pair of 10-2 teams in the Wolverines and Ducks. Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech would make it three more from the ACC in that scenario along with Notre Dame. What if BYU and Texas Tech lose and Utah wins?
Add all that up, and you could get an Armageddon scenario where Texas A&M, Indiana and Ohio State are the only Power 4 conference schools with one loss or less. How in the world would you sort out the other 14 teams? We have committees for that sort of thing, right?
In other words, don't lose that second game just to be sure.
MORE: How Georgia Tech's awful November sunk its CFP hopes
College Football Playoff contenders
Power 4 teams (including Notre Dame) with two losses or less heading into Rivalry Week:
| SEC | BIG TEN | BIG 12 | ACC |
| Texas A&M (11-0) | Indiana (11-0) | Texas Tech (10-1) | Virginia (9-2) |
| Ole Miss (10-1) | Ohio State (11-0) | BYU (10-1) | Miami (9-2) |
| Georgia (10-1) | Oregon (10-1) | Utah (9-2) | Georgia Tech (9-2) |
| Alabama (9-2) | Michigan (9-2) | IND | |
| Oklahoma (9-2) | Notre Dame (9-2) | ||
| Vanderbilt (9-2) |
Here is a look at our latest playoff projections, including first-round byes, first-round matchups and bubble teams. We included all 17 teams with two losses or less.
Dropped out: Georgia Tech, James Madison
Moved in: Tulane, Virginia
MORE: How Oregon's win over USC impacted the Big Ten standings and CFP race
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0; Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes cruised to a 42-9 victory over Rutgers while resting receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Julian Sayin (13 of 19, 157 yards, 2 TDs) had a smooth outing, and Bo Jackson (19 carries, 110 yards, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that totaled 254 yards. Ohio State has allowed just 7.6 points per game heading into The Game against Michigan.
MORE: Aggies' battle with Texas set to headline Rivalry Week 2025
No. 2 Texas A&M (11-0, 8-0; SEC at-large)
Texas A&M jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead on the way to a 48-0 victory over Samford. Marcel Reed (10 of 15, 120 yards, 3 TDs) threw three touchdowns on three drives, and the Aggies set up their regular-season finale at Texas. The Aggies won the last meeting there in 2010. An SEC championship berth hangs in the balance.
No. 3 Indiana (11-0, 8-0; Big Ten at-large)
The Hoosiers had a bye week to gear up for the regular-season finale against Purdue. Indiana ranks third in the FBS with 43.3 points per game. Fernando Mendoza (2,641 yards, 30 TDs, 5 INTs) is the Heisman front-runner with two weeks to go. Curt Cignetti is 22-2 since taking over in Bloomington.
MORE: Inside Indiana coach Curt Cignetti's massive contract extension
No. 4 Georgia (10-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)
The Bulldogs dominated Charlotte 35-3. Gunner Stockton (17 of 21, 196 yards, INT) had just four incompletions, and the defense allowed just 169 total yards. The Bulldogs play rival Georgia Tech on Black Friday and will look to extend its winning streak to eight games against the Yellow Jackets. Georgia still needs an Alabama loss to get into the SEC championship game.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at AllSportsPeople projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 14 of the college football season:
No. 12 Tulane (9-2, 6-1; American champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1; Big 12 champion)
The Red Raiders had a bye week and can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a victory at West Virginia in Week 14. Jacob Rodriguez (100 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) and David Bailey (12.5 sacks) lead a stout defense that has allowed just 12.3 points per game. A first-round playoff bye is still within reach. Tulane beat Temple 37-13 and can secure a spot in the American Conference championship game with a win against Charlotte on Rivalry Week. Jon Sumrall is a popular coaching candidate for several openings. How would that fit with a potential CFP run?
No. 11 Virginia (9-2, 6-1; ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1 SEC at-large)
Anything going on in Oxford this week? Lane Kiffin will make a decision about his coaching future after the Egg Bowl – where a victory likely would give the Rebels the inside track on a first-round home game in the CFP. We do not believe the committee would penalize Ole Miss if Kiffin leaves, but we also have learned to expect the unexpected. Kiffin is 4-1 against Mississippi State. The Cavaliers had a bye week and can punch their ticket to the ACC championship game with a victory against Virginia Tech – which would continue an amazing turn-around season under Tony Elliott. Running back J'Mari Taylor (917 yards, 13 TDs) has been a key piece. The Hokies have won the last four meetings in the series, so the pressure is on.
No. 10 Alabama (9-2, 6-1; SEC at-large) at No. 7 Oregon (10-1, 7-1; Big Ten at-large)
Alabama rolled up 269 rushing yards and eight TDs in a 56-0 victory against Eastern Illinois. Ty Simpson (11 of 16, 147 yards, 2 INTs) had a few turnovers – a minor concern heading into the Iron Bowl. A win likely would get Kalen DeBoer his first playoff appearance with the Crimson Tide. Oregon solidified its standing in the Big Ten race with a 42-27 victory against USC. Dante Moore (22 of 30, 257 yards, 2 TDs, INT) and Noah Whittington (18-109, TD) were the key pieces on offense, and linebacker Bryce Boettcher finished with 13 tackles and a TD run. The Ducks close the regular season against Washington.
No. 9 Notre Dame (9-2; Independent at-large) at No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2, 5-2 SEC at-large)
The Sooners picked up a 17-6 victory against Missouri behind quarterback John Mateer (14 of 30, 173 yards, 2 TDs), who added 60 rushing yards. Oklahoma limited Missouri star running back Ahmad Hardy to 57 rushing yards. The Tigers finished 3 of 15 on third down. Oklahoma can hit the coveted 10-win mark with a victory against LSU. Need style points? Notre Dame led 49-0 at halftime against Syracuse. The Irish beat the Orange 70-7 – an over-the-top blowout where Jeremiyah Love had eight carries for 171 yards and three TDs. The Irish have stayed in the top 10 of the CFP rankings since the first set, and they have given reason for the committee to drop them out of the field.
MORE: Why does BYU QB Bear Bachmeier wear No. 47?
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
BYU (10-1, 7-1)
BYU beat Cincinnati 26-14 behind a monster effort from LJ Martin (32-222, 2 TDs); a clutch road victory that put the Cougars one victory away from a berth in the Big 12 championship game. BYU finished with 265 rushing yards in the victory. Is a rematch with Texas Tech in the cards?
Miami (9-2, 5-2)
The Miami-Notre Dame debate will continue into Rivalry Week. We want to put Miami in too, but the Hurricanes still need help to get into the ACC championship game after a 34-17 victory against Virginia Tech. Miami can ensure back-to-back 10-win seasons with a victory against Pitt. Can they close the gap with Notre Dame with that 27-24 head-to-head victory on Aug. 31?
MORE: Explaining why the University of Miami shares a stadium with the Dolphins
Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2)
The Commodores shredded Kentucky 45-17 with the help of a masterful performance from quarterback Diego Pavia (33 of 39, 484 yards, 5 TDs, INT) in his final home game. He led Vanderbilt with 48 rushing yards and a TD, too. Should he be among the Heisman finalists? Vanderbilt can get to 10 wins for the first time in school history with a victory at Tennessee.
Utah (9-2, 6-2)
How did the Utes stay alive? Utah trailed Kansas State by 10 points with seven minutes remaining before Devon Dampier (18 of 33, 259 yards, 2 TDs) led two TD drives for a wild 51-47 victory. Dampier – who added 94 rushing yards and two TDs – scored the game-winning TD with 56 seconds left. Utah closes the regular season at Kansas.
SMU (8-3, 6-1)
Look who’s back. The Mustangs can return to the ACC championship game with a victory over Cal in the regular-season finale. A 26-20 head-to-head win against Miami on Nov. 1 is huge, and Rhett Lashlee kept the team in the mix with an impressive 38-6 victory over Louisville in Week 13. Would SMU be favored against Virginia?
Michigan (9-2, 7-1)
The Wolverines remain the best hope for a fourth Big Ten team in the playoff heading into the matchup against Ohio State. Bryce Underwood (16 of 23, 215 yards, 2 TDs) led a 45-20 victory against Maryland, and third-string running back Bryson Kuzdzal (20-100, 3 TDs) had a breakout game against the Terps. The stakes are familiar against the Buckeyes, and Michigan has a chance to win a fifth straight game in the series.
Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2)
The Yellow Jackets lost 42-28 to Pitt, which means they go from the leader to a longshot in the ACC championship race. Georgia Tech fell behind 28-0 to the Panthers, and fell short depsite a vailant effort from quarterback Haynes King (27 of 41, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs). The Yellow Jackets face Georgia in Week 14.