Until the College Football Playoff makes the decision to drop conference championship games and expand to 16 teams, part of the process is going to be about Power 4 politics.
That's going to influence the decisions made before the 12-team field is revealed on ESPN's College Football Playoff Selection Show on Sunday at 12 p.m.
Chaos took over when Duke beat Virginia 27-20 in the ACC championship game on Saturday. That means James Madison – the Sun Belt champion – will be the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.
The Blue Devils – a five-loss team – will be left out, but the ACC will still get a team in the College Football Playoff field. Miami finished 10-2 and has been the subject of a debate with Notre Dame for weeks, and now the committee can solve that by putting both teams in.
Who will fall as a result? Alabama. The Crimson Tide lost 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC championship game, and they are now a three-loss team that could fall out of the field.
MORE: What Alabama's loss means for Miami, Notre Dame
Of course, decisions like this have massive consequences. Dropping Alabama out after playing in a conference championship game diminishes the desire to participate in championship games. Why go play in that game if the penalty is dropping out of the field? BYU lost 34-7 to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game and will drop in the rankings – but that will be far less publicized. Indiana beat Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten championship game, but both teams will get first-round byes. Look for those teams to be placed on opposite sides of the bracket, too.
Is any of this fair? That is the eternal debate. Of course, it won't be said out loud Sunday. It breeds conspiracy theories. You always hear about settling it on the field, but the field isn't quite big enough and the conference championship games do not pair well with this format. So it becomes a default setting of compromises, and that's what the College Football Playoff is right now. Politics as usual.
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Here is a look at our final playoff projections, including first-round byes, first-round matchups and bubble teams for the 12-team field:
Dropped out: Alabama, Virginia
Moved in: James Madison, Miami
Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (13-0, 9-0; Big Ten champion)
The Hoosiers upset the Buckeyes and won the program's first Big Ten championship since 1967 under second-year coach Curt Cignetti. Fernando Mendoza made a Heisman Trophy statement with the go-ahead TD pass to Elijah Sarratt in the third quarter, and Indiana will get a first-round bye and a trip to the Rose Bowl Game.
No. 2 Georgia (12-1, 7-1; SEC champion)
The Bulldogs won back-to-back SEC championships in convincing fashion, and that means Georgia will have the No. 2 seed for the second straight season. Kirby Smart has the Bulldogs playing at a high level on both sides. Quarterback Gunner Stockton (20 of 26, 156 yards, 3 TDs) is on a roll, and Georgia has 7.2 points in its last four games.
No. 3 Ohio State (12-1, 9-0; Big Ten at-large)
The Buckeyes could drop to as far as No. 4, but we think the committee will keep them on the opposite side of the bracket against the Hoosiers. Ohio State missed a chance to win the Big Ten championship for the first time since 2020, and that likely means a trip to the Cotton Bowl Classic after a first-round bye. Julian Sayin (21 of 28, 258 yards, TD, INT) took five sacks, and the Buckeyes were limited to 58 rushing yards in the loss.
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1, 8-1; Big 12 champion)
The Red Raiders won their first Big 12 championship in school history in dominant fashion with a 34-7 victory against BYU. Texas Tech clinched a first-round bye in the process and should get the No. 4 seed in the CFP as a result. The Red Raiders' defense forced four turnovers, and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez led the defense with 14 tackles. Texas Tech has allowed 7.2 points in its last six games.
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at AllSportsPeople projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into the reveal of the 12-team College Football Playoff field on Sunday:
No. 12 James Madison (12-1, 8-0; Sun Belt champion) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1, 7-1; Big Ten at-large)
Dukes vs. Ducks. James Madison is the surprise fifth-highest ranked conference champion. The Dukes beat Troy 31-14 in the Sun Belt championship game and have won 11 straight games since a 28-14 loss at Louisville on Sept. 5. The Ducks are back in the CFP for the second straight season under coach Dan Lanning. Oregon is 36-4 the last three seasons and will host a playoff game at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks allowed just 14.5 points per game in six games after the 30-20 loss to Indiana on Oct. 11.
No. 11 Tulane (11-2, 7-1; American champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)
Tulane won the American Conference championship with a 34-21 victory against North Texas. The Mean Green had five turnovers in the loss. The Green Wave will make their first playoff appearance under Jon Sumrall, who will leave for Florida after the playoff. Is there a more interesting team in the first round than Ole Miss? Lane Kiffin took the LSU job, Pete Golding is the interim coach and the Rebels will be heavily favored to get to the quarterfinals. Trinidad Chambliss ranked second in the SEC with a 157.6 passer rating. The Rebels get a home game, too, meaning they will not get penalized for Kiffin leaving. It is a rematch. Ole Miss beat Tulane 45-10 on Sept. 20.
No. 10 Miami (10-2, 6-2; ACC at-large) at No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1; SEC at-large)
Is this really what will happen? The Hurricanes have every right to be upset if they are left out – especially with the 27-24 victory against Notre Dame on Aug. 31. Miami still loses the debate to Notre Dame, but they slip into the playoff as an at-large team. With a win here, Carson Beck could get a shot at Georgia, too. The Aggies lost 27-17 to Texas in the regular-season finale on Nov. 28. Texas A&M piled up three wins against ranked teams – including a 41-40 victory against Notre Dame on Sept. 13. That will be enough for second-year coach Mike Elko to lead the Aggies into a first-round game.
No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2, Independent at-large) at No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2; SEC at-large)
The Irish might not be a popular choice here – not with a head-to-head loss to Miami and the benefit of not being in a Power 4 conference. Notre Dame is still our choice, and losses by BYU and Alabama – and Boise State's 38-21 victory against UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship game – helped push the Irish here. The Sooners are a polarizing playoff team, but the 10-win season and elite defense – which ranked seventh in the FBS at just 13.9 points per game – is enough to get Brent Venables in the CFP for the first time. This is the most appetizing first-round game.
MORE: Nervous moments ahead for Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama
Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Alabama (10-3, 7-1)
We think it's a true toss-up between the Crimson Tide and Hurricanes. This is a risky decision for the committee. Alabama finished 4-1 against ranked teams in the regular season, but they also lost two of their last three games against SEC opponents. This keeps a three-loss at-large team from reaching the playoff, however, and the committee can stand by that decision.
MORE: Kalen DeBoer makes his case after his team didn't
BYU (11-2, 8-1)
The Cougars' playoff hopes were extinguished with a 34-7 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game. BYU could slip behind Texas and Vanderbilt in the CFP rankings as a result.
Texas (9-3, 6-2)
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian's argument about non-conference scheduling is valid as it pertains to the 14-7 loss to No. 1 Ohio State on Aug. 30. Ultimately, it's the 29-21 loss to Florida on Sept. 29 that will keep the Longhorns from making a third straight CFP appearance.
Vanderbilt (10-2, 6-2)
The Commodores enjoyed their best season in school history with 10 wins, Diego Pavia likely will be a Heisman Trophy finalist and Clark Lea signed a six-year extension. Vanderbilt will fall short of the CFP field, but this program has some staying power in the SEC for the future after flipping five-star QB Jared Curtis from Georgia this week.