Six of the nine conference championship games are rematches from the regular season.
How many teams will get revenge in those games? Conference championship week is here, and there are five matchups that will decide either playoff spots – or at least seeding. That starts Friday with the American Conference championship matchup between No. 21 North Texas and No. 22 Tulane at 8 p.m. ET on ABC. The winner will get a playoff spot.
All four Power 4 conference championships are on Saturday. Will No. 11 BYU upset No. 5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game at 12 p.m. ET on ABC and give the conference two playoff spots? Texas Tech could get a first-round bye with a victory.
No. 10 Alabama takes on No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship game at 4 p.m. On ABC. Would a three-loss Crimson Tide team be left out of the CFP? We don't think so, but it's in the discussion. Duke faces No. 16 Virginia in the ACC championship game at 8 p.m. On ABC. The Blue Devils could win the conference with five losses – which would be the latest twist in that conference's wild race.
No. 2 Indiana takes on No. 1 Ohio State at 8 p.m. ET on Fox. It's a “Game of the Century” by the standard, and the winner will be the only unbeaten team in the FBS and the top seed in the College Football Playoff. Winner starts its CFP run at the Rose Bowl.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into championship week. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 188-54 (18-2 in Week 14)
Against the spread: 113-123-6 (8-12 in Week 14)
MORE: College Football Playoff forecast after Week 14
College football championship week picks against the spread
Friday, Dec. 5
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State (-1.5) (7 p.m., CBSSN) in Jacksonville, Ala.
The Gamecocks can win back-to-back Conference USA championships. Jacksonville State won the regular-season matchup 35-26 – a game in which the Owls committed four turnovers and allowed 252 yards. Kennesaw State had 579 total yards in that loss – another reason why this line is almost a pick ‘em. Jacksonville State quarterback Caden Creel and running back Cam Cook both combined for 259 rushing yards and three rushing TDs in the first meeting. Jacksonville State was 4-0 ATS against FBS opponents at home. Can Kennesaw State – a popular upset pick here – overcome that?
Pick: Kennesaw State wins 31-28 in an UPSET.
Troy at No. 19 James Madison (-22.5) (7 p.m., ESPN) in Harrisburg, Va.
James Madison has outscored opponents 141-40 the last three weeks since climbing into the AP Top 25, and the Dukes still have an opportunity to get into the College Football Playoff if Duke wins the ACC. Bob Chesney is 20-5 since taking over for Curt Cignetti at James Madison. James Madison ranks sixth in the FBS with a rushing attack that averages 239.8 yards per game. Quarterback Alonza Barrett III (2,440 passing yards, 20 TDs, 7 INTs) and running back Wayne Knight (1,051 rushing yards, 8 TDs) have been operating at a high level. Troy quarterback Will Crowder, a West Virginia transfer, has 7 TDs and one interception the last two weeks.
Pick: James Madison wins 41-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 21 North Texas (-2.5) vs. No. 22 Tulane (8 p.m., ABC) in New Orleans
This is a CFP play-in game. North Texas coach Eric Morris is leaving for Oklahoma State, and Tulane coach Jon Sumrall is leaving for Florida. Tulane has won in one-score shootouts each of the last two seasons. This could be another high-scoring game, and North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has 16 TDs and one interception in the Mean Green's last six games. North Texas has scored 50-plus points in five of those games. Tulane is 6-0 S/U at home this season. This easily could be the most entertaining conference championship game of the weekend.
Pick: North Texas wins 38-31 and COVERS the spread.
UNLV at Boise State (-3.5) (8 p.m., ABC) in Boise, Idaho
Can Dan Mullen win a Mountain West Conference championship at UNLV in Year 1? The Broncos won the regular-season matchup 56-31 – a game in which quarterback Maddux Madsen had four TD passes and running back Dylan Riley had 201 rushing yards. The teams combined for 1,034 total yards in that game. UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea averages 262.5 passing yards with 7 TDs and four interceptions in UNLV's last four games. A UNLV upset would thrust Mullen back into that spotlight, but that is easier said than done. The Broncos have won the last 10 meetings in the series – which includes two Mountain West Conference championship games.
Pick: Boise State wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
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Saturday, Dec. 6
No. 11 BYU vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (-13.5) (12 p.m., ABC) in Arlington, Texas
The Big 12 championship game is a rematch. Texas Tech dominated the first meeting between these teams in a 29-7 victory where the Cougars had just 67 rushing yards. What can BYU do to change that against the Red Raiders' dominant front seven led by Jacob Rodriguez, who had 14 tackles in the first meeting? BYU also had three turnovers in that game. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier will have to make more chances in the passing game, but BYU needs to establish LJ Martin to have a chance at an upset. The Red Raiders have allowed 20 points or less in all but one game this season. Look for Behren Morton to have success against BYU's pass defense, and Texas Tech should get a first-round bye in the CFP. Neither team has allowed 30 points in a game this season.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 31-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Miami vs. Western Michigan (-2.5) (12 p.m., ESPN) in Detroit
The Broncos are back in the MAC championship game for the first time since 2016. Miami won the regular-season meeting 26-17 – but DeQuan Finn was the quarterback for that game. He left the team to focus on NFL preparation, but the RedHawks have rallied around Thomas Gotkowski, who has averaged 205.5 passing yards with four TDs and no interceptions. Gotkowski has a 53.2% completion percentage. Miami is 1-4 ATS as underdog, and Western Michigan is 3-1 ATS when favored by seven points or less. Quarterback Broc Lowry, who totaled 1,572 passing yards, 875 rushing yards and 21 total TDs, makes the plays in the clutch for the Broncos in the rematch.
Pick: Western Michigan wins 26-21 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) (4 p.m., ABC) in Atlanta
Will Alabama fall out of the playoff picture with a loss? Will Kirby Smart – who has a 1-7 record against Alabama – get past that hurdle? Those themes converge in the SEC championship game – a rematch from the Sept. 27 matchup which the Crimson Tide won 24-21. Ty Simpson passed for 276 yards and two TDs in that victory. Gunner Stockton had 130 yards and a TD. The Bulldogs won the rushing battle 227-117 but still lost the game. Turnovers and penalties also will play a role as usual. Alabama is 4-0 S/U against Georgia in the SEC championship game – another streak Kalen DeBoer will be asked to uphold. The Bulldogs, however, continue to find ways to win tough games under Smart. Georgia wins its third SEC championship in four seasons in yet another grinder.
Pick: Georgia wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.
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No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State (-5.5) (8 p.m., Fox) in Indianapolis
A No. 1-vs.-No. 2 matchup on conference championship week? The Hoosiers are in the Big Ten championship game for the first time, and Fernando Mendoza can make his Heisman Trophy case. Indiana averaged 107.1 yards on 3.0 yards per carry against Oregon, Iowa and Penn State this season – but the Hoosiers were patient with the run in those games. Ohio State's defense allows just 3.7 yards per play. Both defenses allow less than 60 plays – so it will be interesting to see how Indiana attacks Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who also is in the Heisman discussion. Can they limit the big plays from Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? Ohio State beat Indiana 38-15 last season. Has Indiana closed the gap with Cignetti? Or is this Buckeyes' team under Ryan Day simply too damn good? Ohio State was 10-2 ATS in the regular season. The Hoosiers are 1-2 S/U as an underdog under Cignetti.
Pick: Ohio State wins 28-17 and COVERS the spread.
Duke vs. No. 16 Virginia (-3) (8 p.m., ABC) in Charlotte
The ACC championship game will have a first-time champion. Duke – a five-loss team – can complicate the playoff picture even more. The Cavaliers can clinch a CFP spot with a victory. Transfer quarterbacks Darian Mensah and Chandler Morris have played well at their respective schools. Virginia beat Duke 34-17 on Nov. 15. Mensah finished 18 of 35 for 214 yards, and the Cavaliers out-rushed the Blue Devils 224-42. Virginia running back J'Mari Taylor averages 20 carries and 104 rushing yards the last four weeks. If the Cavaliers stay tight on defense – where they've allowed 21 points or less in their last six games – then they will save the conference any further drama.
Pick: Virginia wins 31-23 and COVERS the spread.