College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 8 matchups

Bill Bender

College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 8 matchups image

Three classic rivalries where both teams are ranked highlight the start of the second half of the college football season. 

All of those games will be played in prime time.

No. 20 USC takes on No. 13 Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. on NBC. The Trojans and Irish are fighting for College Football Playoff contention – and it's a fantastic quarterback matchup between Jayden Maiava and CJ Carr. 

No. 6 Alabama takes on No. 11 Tennessee on the Third Saturday in October at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. Both teams have one loss and are looking to stay in the SEC championship race. The Holy War between No. 23 Utah and No. 15 BYU is a key piece of the Big 12 race now. The Cougars and Utes play at 8 p.m. on Fox. 

There also is a top-10 showdown between No. 5 Ole Miss and No. 9 Georgia at 3:30 p.m. on ABC, which follows a matchup between No. 10 LSU and No. 17 Vanderbilt at 12 p.m. ET. 

Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 8. (Odds according to Caesars)

Straight up: 84-29 (13-5 in Week 7) 

Against the spread: 51-60-2 (7-10-1 in Week 7)

MORE: College Football Playoff forecast after Week 7

Week 8 picks against the spread 

Friday, Oct. 24

Louisville at No. 2 Miami (-13) (7 p.m., ESPN2) 

The last three meetings have been determined by a TD or less, including last season's 52-45 shootout. The Cardinals are 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog with third-year coach Jeff Brohm, but Miller Moss took five sacks in their last loss against Virginia. Will the pass protection hold up against Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor? These are the top two statistical defenses in the ACC. 

Pick: Miami wins 30-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

No. 25 Nebraska (-6.5) at Minnesota (8 p.m., Fox) 

Nebraska is ranked under Matt Rhule – but it's a road test knowing the Gophers are 2-0 S/U at home with two victories in Big Ten play. The Huskers have a plus-six turnover margin, which had been a problem in the past. Look for Dylan Raiola to break the Huskers' five-game losing streak to the Gophers. 

Pick: Nebraska wins 24-16 and COVERS the spread. 

MORE: Matt Rhule one to watch in the Penn State coaching search

Saturday, Oct. 25

No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke (-3) (12 p.m., ESPN) 

Why is Georgia Tech an underdog here? Duke allows 123.2 rushing yards per game, and Haynes King is a combination of efficient passing (71.2%) and a bruising runner who averages 5.2 yards per carry. Which tempo wins this matchup? Duke quarterback Darian Mensah leads the ACC with 15 TDs, and the Blue Devils are 3-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 

Pick: Georgia Tech wins 28-26 in an UPSET. 

No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (-2.5) (12 p.m., ABC) 

The Tigers have won the last 10 meetings, including last season's 24-17 win in Baton Rouge. LSU's offense has been stop-and-start with Garrett Nussmeier, who has four TDs and four interceptions in three SEC games. Vanderbilt must show it can score against a top-five scoring defense, and Diego Pavia cannot have the red-zone turnovers this time. LSU is 2-3 S/U and 2-3 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Kelly. 

Pick: LSU wins 28-24 in an UPSET.

No. 14 Oklahoma (-4.5) at South Carolina (12:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

The Sooners got their reality check with the loss to Texas, and South Carolina will turn up the pressure on John Mateer with Dylan Stewart, who has 3.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss. South Carolina, however, ranks 107th in the FBS in scoring offense. 

Pick: Oklahoma wins 27-17 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 1 Ohio State (-27.5) at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

Ohio State covered each of the last three weeks with a defense that allows 6.8 points per game. Wisconsin averages 15.5 points per game, and they have not scored more than 14 points per game against Power 4 opponents this season. Is this Luke Fickell's last stand? Alabama scored 42 at Camp Randall Stadium last season. Ohio State will match it. 

Pick: Ohio State wins 42-10 and COVERS the spread. 

BENDER: Ohio State's defense is on a historic pace

No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (-7) (3:30 p.m., ABC) 

Ole Miss hammered Georgia 28-10 last season. Will the Rebels do the same at Sanford Stadium for the first time since 1996? The Bulldogs should have success against an Ole Miss defense that allows 157.7 rushing yards per game. Trinidad Chambliss is making his first road start, and the Bulldogs allow 91.7 rushing yards per game.

Pick: Georgia 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

MORE: What to know about D2 transfer Trinidad Chambliss

No. 4 Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

Texas A&M is 12-1 S/U against Arkansas since joining the SEC, with seven of the wins coming by one score. The Aggies have allowed just 12 points per game in SEC play, but this is their first road game since Notre Dame. Arkansas showed more fight with Bobby Petrino, but they still allow 40.8 points per game in the last four losses. 

Pick: Texas A&M wins 31-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana (-26.5) (3:30 p.m., Peacock) 

The Spartans shouldn't be this bad on the defensive side. Michigan State have allowed 40.3 points per game in Big Ten play. That included allowing an average of 264 rushing yards to USC and UCLA. Indiana leads the Big Ten at 241.7 rushing yards per game. The Hoosiers beat the Spartans 47-10 last season, and Indiana is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite under Curt Cignetti.  

Pick: Indiana wins 45-17 and COVERS the spread. 

MORE: Curt Cignetti throws sideline fit in win over Oregon

No. 7 Texas Tech (-11.5) at Arizona State (4 p.m., Fox) 

Which quarterbacks are playing? This line could move depending on the statuses of Sam Leavitt and Behren Morton, who are both dealing with leg injuries. Jeff Sims and Will Hammond are the backup quarterbacks. Texas Tech running back Cameron Dickey leads the Big 12 with eight rushing TDs – and the Sun Devils allowed 276 rushing yards in Week 8. The Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS against FBS schools this season.

Pick: Texas Tech wins 35-20 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 22 Memphis (-21) at UAB (4 p.m., ESPN2) 

UAB fired Trent Dilfer on Sunday. UAB quarterback Jalen Kitna leads the American Conference with a 69.1% completion percentage, but the Blazers allow 41.5 points per game. Memphis is coming off a bye week – but don't peak ahead to that matchup against South Florida. The Tigers have won the last two matchups by an average of 29.5 points per game. 

Pick: Memphis wins 45-21 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 8 Oregon (-16) at Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN) 

The Ducks suffered their first loss, and now they have to make the cross-country flight to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have allowed 30-plus points in four games this season. This is a good bounce-back opportunity for Dante Moore, and Oregon is 5-0 S/U and 3-2 ATS in these multi-time-zone travel games since joining the Big Ten. 

Pick: Oregon wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread. 

Washington State at No. 18 Virginia (-17.5) (6:30 p.m., The CW) 

The Cougars showed they could hang with Ole Miss last week – but can they do it against a Virginia offense that averages 41.3 points in ACC play? Washington State has run the ball better in its last two games, and Kirby Vorhees could get 20-plus carries here. The Cavaliers are 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. 

Pick: Virginia wins 37-22 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

No. 21 Texas (-11.5) at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN) 

Texas flipped the script with Arch Manning last week. The Wildcats are coming off a bye,, and quarterbacks Zach Calzada and Cutter Boley have four TDs and four interceptions this season. The Longhorns' defense should be able to contain those threats, and Kentucky ranks 14th in the SEC in pass defense. Manning continues on the right path on the road. 

Pick: Texas wins 29-16 and COVERS the spread. 

Jayden Maiava

No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (-8) (7:30 p.m., Peacock) 

USC has not won in South Bend since 2011, and the last two matchups have been blowouts. So what's different this time? Jayden Maiava has a 185.6 passer rating and is creeping into the Heisman Trophy conversation. The Trojans can run the ball, too, but the key will be avoiding turnovers against the Irish, which has a plus-8 advantage in turnover margin through a four-game winning streak. Notre Dame also has 13 rushing TDs in the last four weeks. The Trojans allowed just one rushing TD against Illinois and Michigan. 

Pick: Notre Dame wins 31-30 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (-8) (7:30 p.m., ABC) 

The Crimson Tide are 3-0 ATS at home, and Ty Simpson continues to play at a high level. Tennessee has not won at Alabama since 2003. Will Jam Miller (concussion) play for the Crimson Tide? Joey Aguilar had two interceptions in his last road start, and this is a tougher environment for the Vols. The Crimson Tide continue their impressive turnaround under Kalen DeBoer. 

Pick: Alabama wins 28-18 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 19 South Florida (-22) at FAU (7:30 p.m., ESPNU) 

First-year coach Zach Kitley is 3-3 with the Owls. FAU quarterback Caden Veltkamp leads the American Conference with 1,785 yards and 14 TDs, but he also has nine interceptions. South Florida beat FAU 44-21 last season. If the Owls allowed 200-plus rushing yards this season. Can they tighten up a little bit against the Bulls? 

Pick: South Florida wins 45-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.  

No. 16 Missouri at Auburn (-2) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

Will Missouri bounce back after the loss against Alabama? Auburn averages 12.3 points per game in SEC play, and the Tigers have a physical defense and strong running game behind Ahmad Hardy. The last two meetings have been decided by a combined total of seven points, but we still think Missouri is the better team. 

Pick: Missouri wins 21-18 in an UPSET. 

No. 23 Utah (-3.5) at No. 15 BYU (8 p.m., Fox) 

BYU has won the last two meetings, so the line in the "Holy War" is jarring at first. The Cougars are unbeaten, but Utah quarterback Devon Dampier presents a two-fold challenge for the BYU defense with a 71.5% completion percentage and averages 5.8 yards per carry. Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier has seven TDs and one interception. Which QB makes the plays in the fourth quarter? 

Pick: Utah wins 28-24 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 24 Cincinnati (-21) at Oklahoma State (8 p.m., ESPN2) 

The Bearcats are ranked behind a high-powered offense that averages 36 points per game, and Brendan Sorsby has 14 TDs and one interception this season. The Cowboys have lost three games by an average of 22 points per game since Mike Gundy was fired, and Oklahoma State allows 298.7 passing yards per game. Without turnovers, this won't be close. 

Pick: Cincinnati wins 38-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

Bill Bender

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.