Four matchups between ranked teams highlight a loaded Week 5 college football schedule.
The Big Ten and the SEC each have two marquee matchups.
No. 21 USC travels to No. 23 Illinois at 12 p.m. on Fox in the early window. The Trojans are looking to stay unbeaten under coach Lincoln Riley in their second Big Ten season. No. 4 LSU travels to No. 13 Ole Miss at 3:30 p.m. on ABC. Will Brian Kelly or Lane Kiffin score a huge SEC victory there?
Speaking of the SEC, No. 17 Alabama travels to No. 5 Georgia at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. The Crimson Tide will look to break their road struggles under Kalen DeBoer. It's a two-TV kind of night. No. 6 Oregon travels to No. 3 Penn State in the same evening window.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 5. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 50-14 (13-2 in Week 4)
Against the spread: 29-34-1 (7-8 in Week 4)
MORE: Previewing College Football's loaded Week 5 slate
Week 5 picks against the spread
Friday, Sept. 26
No. 8 Florida State (-7) at Virginia (7 p.m., ESPN)
Thomas Castellanos (ankle) has an injury scare against Kent State in Week 4, but he confirmed he's "100 percent" heading into the ACC opener against the Cavaliers. Virginia averages 45.5 points per game with sixth-year senior Chandler Morris, who has taken just one sack in four games.
Pick: Florida State wins 38-28 and COVERS the spread.
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (-2.5) (9 p.m., Fox)
It's a great next-level quarterback matchup with Sam Leavitt and Josh Hoover. Raleek Brown (372 yards, 6.6 ypc.) offers good run support for Leavitt, and the Sun Devils have won eight straight home games dating back to last season. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover, however, will make enough splash plays in the passing game with Eric McAlister, who averages 24.6 yards per catch – and a veteran defense that will handle the road.
Pick: TCU wins 31-30 in an UPSET.
MORE: College Football Playoff bracket projections for Week 5
Saturday, Sept. 27
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (-6.5) (12 p.m., Fox)
How does Illinois bounce back after a 63-10 loss to Indiana? The Trojans are in their second two-time zone travel game – but the running back tag team of Waymond Jordan (443 yards, 3 TDs) and Eli Sanders (250 yards, 2 TDs) have been a dominant tag-team rushing attack, and that should travel. Yes, the early start concerns us, too.
Pick: USC wins 35-27 and COVERS the spread.
No. 16 Georgia Tech (-14.5) at Wake Forest (12 p.m., ESPN)
Wake Forest had a bye week to prepare for the Yellow Jackets, but the Demon Deacons are still progressing with first-year coach Jake Dickert. Wake Forest allowed 201 rushing yards in the ACC opener against NC State. The Yellow Jackets pose more issues up front with Haynes King and Jamal Haynes. Georgia Tech has won the last two meetings by 14 points.
Pick: Georgia Tech wins 31-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 22 Notre Dame (-6) at Arkansas (12 p.m., ABC)
Another tricky spot for Notre Dame here. The Irish have allowed 32.7 points per game and 265 passing yards per game through three games. Taylen Green had 300-yard games against Ole Miss and Memphis the last two weeks. The Razorbacks also allowed 290 rushing yards to the Tigers. How will CJ Carr handle his second road start?
Pick: Notre Dame wins 34-27 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Ranking Wisconsin's best candidates to replace Luke Fickell
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (-22.5) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Vanderbilt poured 70 points on Georgia State last week. Diego Pavia leads the SEC with a 73.9% completion percentage. Utah State is off to a 3-1 start under Bronco Mendenhall, and Bryson Barnes has proven to be an effective dual-threat QB with 14 total TDs. The Aggies are 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Pick: Vanderbilt wins 35-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 1 Ohio State (-9) at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
This line continues to plummet. Washington averages 55.7 points per game, Demond Williams has been brilliant, and running back Jonah Coleman leads the Big Ten with nine rushing TDs. How will that translate against Ohio State's defense – which leads the FBS in scoring defense at 5.3 points per game. The line has dropped to the point there is value in the Buckeyes.
Pick: Ohio State wins 35-17 and COVERS the spread.
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (-6.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
How do the Tigers bounce back after Jackson Arnold took 10 sacks against Oklahoma? It's another tough road environment at Texas A&M, especially with how well Marcel Reed continues to play. Aggies receiver Mario Craver averages 22.2 yards per catch with four TDs. Auburn's Cam Coleman averages 18.2 yards per catch with two TDs. This is the same line the Tigers faced last week. Texas A&M is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite under Mike Elko.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
No. 11 Indiana (-7) at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock)
Giving Iowa a TD at Kinnick Stadium? The Hoosiers are back in high gear after a 63-10 victory against Illinois. Fernando Mendoza is playing at a high level, and the Hoosiers have four running backs with at least 200 rushing yards. Mark Gronowski will need to pass for more than 200 yards in this game for the Hawkeyes to win. Iowa hasn't lost by more than a TD at half since a 27-14 loss to Michigan on Oct. 1, 2022.
Pick: Indiana wins 24-13 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: How Curt Cignetti, Fernando Mendoza have Indiana thinking big
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
The Tigers are a road underdog at Ole Miss. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss averages 417 total yards with five TDS in two stats. Will that continue against an elite LSU defense that allows 9.2 points per game. The home team has won the last five meetings, which is a trend the Tigers will look to break with Garrett Nussmeier, who had 337 yards, three TDs and two interceptions in last year's 29-26 thriller.
Pick: LSU wins 28-27 in an UPSET.
No. 15 Tennessee (-8) at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar leads the SEC with 12 TD passes. How will he handle the cowbells? The Bulldogs are 4-0 under second-year coach Jeff Lebby. The defense has generated five sacks in four games. They will need to turn up the pressure on Aguilar. Tennessee running backs Star Thomas (272 yards, 4 TDs) and DeSean Bishop (263 yards, 3 TDs) each average more than 6.0 yards per carry. That will be the key here.
Pick: Tennessee wins 30-20 and COVERS the spread.
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (-6.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Both teams had a bye week to prepare. Arizona looks resurgent with Noah Fifita, who has yet to throw an interception in three games. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brent Brennan. Iowa State's defense will cause some havoc, but this game is a prime candidate for a wild night in Ames.
Pick: Iowa State wins 31-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 6 Oregon at No. 2 Penn State (-3.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Oregon visits Penn State for the first time since 1964 in a rematch of last year's Big Ten championship game. How will the Ducks handle the "Whiteout" conditions? Dante Moore has been under control. This is a statement game for Drew Allar, who has another chance to knock off a top-10 opponent.
Pick: Penn State wins 28-25 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (-3) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Will the Bulldogs beat the Crimson Tide in the regular season for the first time since 2007? Alabama has won nine of the last 10 meetings. The quarterback matchup between Gunner Stockton and Ty Simpson is about efficiency. Who makes the plays in the red zone? Simpson leads the SEC with a 186.6 passer rating. What will Georgia do to disrupt that? The Bulldogs will look to protect their 33-game home winning streak at Sanford Stadium.
Pick: Georgia wins 28-24 and COVERS the spread.
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (-43) (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)
Missouri beat UMass 45-3 in last year's meeting. The Minuteman allowed an average of 44.5 points per game in losses to Temple and Iowa this season, and they have yet to throw a TD pass. Missouri averages 45 points in its last three meetings against Group of 5 schools. Will the Tigers pull up heading into a bye week before the Oct. 11 showdown with Alabama?
Pick: Missouri wins 49-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
BYU (-6) at No. 25 Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPNU)
BYU hammered Colorado 36-14 in the Alamo Bowl last season. The Buffaloes are back to Kaidon Salter, who had 304 yards and three TDs in a 37-20 victory against Wyoming. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has four TDs and no interceptions, running back LJ Martin averages 8.6 yards per carry and the Cougars' defense has allowed 16 points in three games. Take the road underdog before this line rises.
Pick: BYU wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.