Three matchups between ranked teams highlight the Week 12 college football schedule.
No. 9 Notre Dame travels to No. 23 Pitt at 12 p.m. On ABC in a battle of two-loss teams. The Panthers have the spotlight on ESPN's "College GameDay" for the matchup.
No. 11 Oklahoma faces No. 4 Alabama at 3:30 p.m. On ABC. The Sooners are looking to avoid a third loss. The Crimson Tide lost 24-3 to Oklahoma last season.
That sets up the main event between No. 10 Texas and No. 5 Georgia at 7:30 p.m. On ABC. The Longhorns also are looking to avoid a third loss, and the Bulldogs are looking to stay in the SEC championship race. Remember, this was the most-watched game of the regular season in 2024.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 12. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 138-46 (11-4 in Week 11)
Against the spread: 85-94-5 (7-7-1 in Week 11)
MORE: College Football Playoff forecast after Week 11
Week 11 picks against the spread
Friday, Nov. 14
Clemson at No. 19 Louisville (-3.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Clemson ranks fifth in the ACC in run defense (106.2 ypg.), and that will be the key on the road against Louisville. The Cardinals rushed for 210 yards in a 33-21 victory last year. Louisville is 1-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite this season.
Pick: Louisville wins 27-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Minnesota at No. 7 Oregon (-23.5) (9 p.m., Fox)
Is the Oregon offense a concern? The Ducks averaged 19.5 points in victories at Wisconsin and Iowa. A trip home should help – and Minnesota is 0-3 S/U on the road this season with blowout losses at Ohio State and Iowa. The Gophers have allowed 141.5 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play.
Pick: Oregon wins 38-13 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 15
Wisconsin at No. 2 Indiana (-30.5) (12 p.m., BTN)
Wisconsin has scored 14 points or less in its last seven games – so we're not under the illusion this will be an upset. It's a matter of how much the Badgers' defense can slow the Hoosiers down. The Hoosiers' blowouts in Big Ten play have come against teams that allow 125 rushing yards or more per game. The Badgers are at 111.4 – a number slightly better than Oregon. Indiana is 3-0 ATS when favored by 28 points or more this season.
Pick: Indiana wins 38-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Omar Cooper Jr.'s spectacular catch saves Indiana
South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M (-18.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
This is a huge opening line – or is it? The Gamecocks score 14.7 points per game in SEC road games, and Texas A&M has scored 30-plus points in each of its last five games. The Aggies can reach the 10-win mark here – but South Carolina is coming off a bye week and will hang around early.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 31-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 9 Notre Dame (-10.5) at No. 23 Pitt (12 p.m., ABC)
The Irish are riding a seven-game winning streak – and Jeremiyah Love has 458 rushing yards on 8.5 yards per carry in Notre Dame's last three games. Pitt's run defense allows just 2.4 yards per carry behind a strong group of linebackers in Braylan Lovelace, Rasheem Biles and Kyle Louis. Mason Heintschel and CJ Carr will be asked to do more here. Notre Dame has won the last four meetings in the series.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 28-23 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 18 Michigan (-10) at Northwestern (12 p.m., Fox)
The Wolverines are coming off a bye week and trying to stay in the Big Ten playoff hunt. The Wildcats rank sixth in the Big Ten in scoring defense (19.1), but that number jumps up to 36 points per game against ranked teams. If Bryce Underwood protects the football, Michigan will improve to 3-2 S/U on the road.
Pick: Michigan wins 30-16 and COVERS the spread.
Arizona at No. 22 Cincinnati (-6.5) (12 p.m., FS1)
The Bearcats are home after a bye week – and they still have hope in the Big 12 championship race. Cincinnati cannot afford to look ahead to BYU here. Arizona is 1-2 S/U on the road this season and 1-2 ATS as an underdog.
Pick: Cincinnati wins 31-23 and COVERS the spread.
No. 25 South Florida (-10.5) at Navy (12 p.m., ESPN2)
Will Blake Horvath play? He missed the Notre Dame game with a lower body injury. That is a key factor in this American Conference game that carries significant College Football Playoff implications. The road team has won the last two meetings in this series – and that trend will continue. The Midshipmen are 0-2 ATS as an underdog.
Pick: South Florida wins 30-22 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (-7) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Alabama is a TD favorite against the Sooners in a revenge game of sorts from last year. Oklahoma – which leads the SEC in scoring defense and total defense – is a challenge. Ty Simpson has taken just three sacks in Alabama's last three games. If the Sooners' pressure doesn't land, that's a problem. Alabama is 5-0 ATS at home this season.
Pick: Alabama wins 26-17 and COVERS the spread.
UCF at No. 8 Texas Tech (-23.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Texas Tech has allowed 13 points per game in Big 12 play with a nasty defense led by All-American candidates Jacob Rodriguez (91 tackles) and David Bailey (11.5 sacks). UCF is 0-3 S/U on the road in Big 12 play and averages 11.3 points per game in those losses.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 35-10 and COVERS the spread.
No. 14 Georgia Tech (-16.5) at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
The Eagles have been more competitive, but they can't stop the run. Louisville, Notre Dame and SMU averaged 232.7 rushing yards per game against the Eagles. Georgia Tech – coming off a bye week – should be able to work with that. Boston College has won the last three meetings in the series.
Pick: Georgia Tech wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.
NC State at No. 16 Miami, Fla. (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
NC State has been hit or miss this season – but the Wolfpack have allowed 30 points or more six times this season. CharMar Brown and Girard Pringle combined for 15 carries and 95 yards in Mark Fletcher's absence for the Hurricanes last week. Three of the last five meetings have been decided by a TD or less.
Pick: Miami wins 34-22 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Iowa at No. 17 USC (-6.5) (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Iowa is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Oregon. Can the Hawkeyes keep up on the road against USC's high-powered offense that leads the Big Ten with 503.2 yards per game? USC is 4-1 ATS at home this season – and that time-zone difference will hit here.
Pick: USC wins 30-18 and COVERS the spread.
No. 20 Virginia at Duke (-6.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Will Chandler Morris – who suffered a head injury in the loss to Wake Forest – return for this game? That explains the line against Duke – which lost 37-34 to UConn in Week 11. If Morris plays, we would be more confident in the Cavaliers – who are 2-1 ATS on the road this season.
Pick: Duke wins 30-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Appalachian State at No. 24 James Madison (-19.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+)
How will the Dukes respond to being in the AP Top 25? Appalachian State has three straight one-score losses, and the Mountaineers have a history with the Dukes that dates back to their days in the old Division I-AA. James Madison is 3-1 ATS at home.
Pick: James Madison wins 34-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
New Mexico State at No. 21 Tennessee (-39.5) (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
How motivated will Tennessee be against the Aggies? New Mexico State has allowed 267.7 passing yards and 10 TDs in its last three games. That should translate into a huge game for Joey Aguilar. It's just a matter of how much the Vols pour it on in the second half.
Pick: Tennessee wins 56-14 and COVERS the spread.
Florida at No. 9 Ole Miss (-16.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
We'll see what the Rebels learned from last season. Florida benched DJ Lagway in an embarrassing loss to Kentucky last week after he threw three interceptions to up his season total to 12. How will that carry over on the road at Ole Miss? The Gators have allowed 27.7 points per game since Billy Napier was fired.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 35-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 15 Utah (-9.5) at Baylor (7 p.m. ESPN2)
This is a tricky game for Utah knowing the Bears are tougher at home. The Utes average 49 points per game in their last two victories, and they are coming off a bye week. Baylor has trouble against the run – and Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker are a tough tandem to slow down.
Pick: Utah wins 38-28 and COVERS the spread.
UCLA at No. 1 Ohio State (-31.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Ohio State gets a prime-time spotlight against the Bruins, who suffered back-to-back losses against Indiana and Nebraska. Nico Iamaleava has experience at The Shoe from the first-round College Football Playoff loss last season. This will not be any easier. The Buckeyes average 39.5 points in two prime-time home games this year.
Pick: Ohio State wins 45-10 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (-6) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This would be a statement game for Texas – especially Arch Manning – if the Longhorns could go into Sanford Stadium and pull out an upset. The Longhorns lead the SEC in run defense (78.2 yards per game), but Georgia is not that far behind in fourth (100.2 ypg.). Gunner Stockton has eight TDs, one interception and a 155.4 passer rating at home this season. He's been clutch in the close games.
Pick: Georgia wins 28-20 and COVERS the spread.
TCU at No. 12 BYU (-6) (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
The Horned Frogs have played three straight one-score games in Big 12 play – and they rank third in the conference in run defense. Will that hold up against LJ Martin – who ranks second in the Big 12 with 824 rushing yards? Josh Hoover has two interceptions in each of TCU's three losses. That's the stat to watch in a late-night road game.
Pick: BYU wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.