"Elimination game" will be a popular term for the next five weeks.
A total of 30 teams in the Power 4 – including Notre Dame – have two losses or less heading into Week 10 of the college football season. There were no three-loss at-large teams in the College Football Playoff last season, though Alabama was the first team out at 9-3. Knowing that, three games between ranked teams take on more significance this week.
Will No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1) give No. 20 Texas (6-2) – the preseason No. 1 – a third loss? The Commodores and Longhorns play at 12 p.m. On ABC.
No. 18 Oklahoma (6-2) and No. 14 Tennessee (6-2) play at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC in a battle of two-loss teams. The loser of that game is almost certainly out. No. 23 USC (5-2) travels to Nebraska (6-2) in the same window on NBC in a matchup of two-loss Big Ten teams.
The Big 12 gets the late-night showdown in the third matchup between ranked teams. No. 17 Cincinnati (7-1) travels to No. 24 Utah (6-2) at 10:15 p.m. On ESPN. That game could shake up an exciting Big 12 championship race and will get the GameDay treatment.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 10. (Odds according to Caesars)
Straight up: 114-38 (16-3 in Week 9)
Against the spread: 70-79-3 (10-8-1 in Week 9)
MORE: College Footbal Playoff forecast after Week 9
Week 10 picks against the spread
Friday, Oct. 31
No. 25 Memphis (-14.5) at Rice (7 p.m., ESPN2)
First-year coach Scott Abell has Rice at.500, and the Owls rank 13th in the FBS with an offense that averages 226 rushing yards per game. Memphis is 17th at 210 yards per game, and the Tigers beat the Owls 27-10 last season. Can Rice keep up with the Tigers' big-play offense?
Pick: Memphis wins 42-24 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 1
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (-20.5) (12 p.m., Fox)
This was supposed to be one of the best games on the Big Ten schedule. Now, it's a chance for the Nittany Lions to play spoiler against the Buckeyes. Penn State quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer grew up in the Columbus area. Ohio State is 6-1 ATS this season – one of the most-reliable covers in the sport because of a defense that allows just 5.9 points per game.
Pick: Ohio State wins 34-10 and COVERS the spread.
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No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (-3) (12 p.m., ABC)
The Commodores are in the spotlight for the third straight week – and the chance to knock Texas out of the CFP picture has to be appealing for Diego Pavia. Arch Manning (concussion) will be questionable for Saturday, which means Troy transfer Matthew Caldwell could get his first start. This will be another defensive struggle, and Texas will take advantage in its first home game since Sept. 20.
Pick: Texas wins 22-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Miami, Fla. (-10) at SMU (12 p.m., ESPN)
The Mustangs have been hit or miss this season and are coming off a 13-12 loss at Wake Forest. Both teams allow less than 100 rushing yards per game, so it will come down to which quarterback – Carson Beck or Kevin Jennings – avoids turnovers. Jennings has a 52.4% completion percentage in the Mustangs' last two games.
Pick: Miami wins 35-24 and COVERS the spread.
West Virginia at No. 22 Houston (-14.5) (12 p.m., FS1)
West Virginia has lost five straight, but the Mountaineers showed progress in a 23-17 loss to TCU. Will that translate on the road against Houston? The Cougars have double-digit wins against Colorado and Oklahoma State this season. Conner Weigman (1,581 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INTs) does not turn the ball over. West Virginia has covered as a double-digit underdog in two of the last three games.
Pick: Houston wins 34-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 16 Louisville (-10.5) at Virginia Tech (3 p.m., The CW)
The Hokies showed life in a 42-34 upset against Cal, but the defense has still allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three games. Louisville allows 25 points per game in ACC play, and these teams have not met in Blacksburg since 1991. Will this be a matchup that shakes up the ACC race?
Pick: Louisville wins 28-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 2 Indiana (-22.5) at Maryland (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The Terrapins had a bye week to recover after three straight one-score losses. The Hoosiers beat Maryland 42-28 last season – and the Hoosiers are 1-1 ATS when favored by 20-plus points in Big Ten play. Both of those games were at home. Maryland ranks last in the Big Ten in rushing offense (101.3 ppg.), so the pressure will be on Malik Washington to keep up with Indiana's high-powered offense.
Pick: Indiana wins 38-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 5 Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Georgia remains in the SEC championship race, and the Gators will be in their first game since firing Billy Napier on Oct. 19. The Bulldogs have allowed just 12 points per game to unranked SEC opponents, and Gunner Stockton has just one interception in SEC play. Florida is 0-3 ATS as an underdog of five points or more. Georgia has won the last three meetings by 14 points or more.
Pick: Georgia wins 33-20 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Would Lane Kiffin leave Ole Miss for Florida?
No. 12 Notre Dame (-28.5) at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Notre Dame averages 44.5 points per game in the last four victories against Boston College, and the Eagles allow 163 rushing yards per game. That means another huge game for Jeremiyah Love – who had 228 rushing yards against USC on Oct. 18. These rivals have not met since 2022, and the Irish are 2-1 ATS when favored by 20 or more points this season.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 45-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 13 Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The line has stuck at seven points, and Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said quarterback Behren Morton (ankle) should return for this game. The Wildcats have recalibrated from a dreadful first month and are 3-1 S/U at home. Avery Johnson averages 214.5 passing yards with seven total TDs and no interceptions the last two games.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 35-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 15 Virginia (-4) at Cal (3:45 p.m., ESPN2)
Virginia is 2-1 S/U on the road, and all of those games have been decided by four points or less. Cal is 3-1 S/U at home, and freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has not thrown an interception in his last two games. The Bears struggle against the run, however, and the Cavaliers will be able to take advantage of that on the road.
Pick: Virginia wins 29-23 and COVERS the spread.
South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss (-13.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Lane Kiffin will be the subject of every coaching rumor possible the rest of the season, but the Rebels are on track for their first playoff appearance. Trinidad Chambliss averages 311.3 passing yards in SEC play. South Carolina is 2-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog, but how will they bounce back after the emotional loss against Alabama?
Pick: Ole Miss wins 34-16 and COVERS the spread.
Purdue at No. 21 Michigan (-20.5) (7 p.m., BTN)
Purdue is stuck in a six-game losing streak, and the Boilermakers have allowed 44.5 points per game against ranked teams this season. Barry Odom was UNLV's coach in a 35-7 loss at Michigan on Sept. 9, 2023. Purdue ranks next-to-last in the Big Ten in pass defense. Bryce Underwood could have a huge night. The Wolverines have won the last six meetings by an average of 21.8 points per game.
Pick: Michigan wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 8 Georgia Tech (-6.5) at NC State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
NC State is a.500 team, but three of those losses are on the road. The Wolfpack allow 29.9 points per game, and Haynes King ranks 12th in the FBS with 304.4 yards per game. The last three meetings have been decided by an average of 4.3 points per game, but the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS in games with a single-digit spread.
Pick: Georgia Tech wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (-3.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Oklahoma allows 12.5 points per game – but that number increases to 28.5 points in SEC losses to Texas and Ole Miss. The Volunteers average 36.4 points per game (in regulation) in SEC games. The Sooners will have to slow down Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar, who has a 173 passer rating at home. John Mateer has a 57.8% completion percentage with two TDs and three interceptions since returning from hand surgery.
Pick: Tennessee wins 30-24 and COVERS the spread.
No. 23 USC (-6) at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., NBC)
It's a Big Ten elimination game. Dylan Raiola averages just 159 passing yards the last two weeks, but it comes with a 70.2% completion percentage. USC is 1-5 S/U the last two years in multi-time zone travel games, and this will be another tough road environment. Jayden Maiava, however, averaged 346 passing yards with four TDs and three interceptions in the losses to Illinois and Notre Dame this year. The line has dropped a half point, which gives a little value in the Trojans.
Pick: USC wins 34-27 and COVERS the spread.
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (-7) (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Will Devon Dampier (ankle) play? Freshman Byrd Ficklin had 151 passing yards, 140 rushing yards and three TDs against Colorado in Week 9. The Utes are 0-2 S/U against ranked teams, however, and Brendan Sorsby ranks second in the Big 12 with a 172.5 passer rating. Can the Bearcats pull the upset?
Pick: Utah wins 31-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.