Three top-10 showdowns are the highlight of the Week 1 schedule – and an immediate chance to show we can pick the big game.
No. 1 Texas is a road underdog at No. 3 Ohio State. The Longhorns and Buckeyes clash at noon on FOX. No. 4 Clemson takes on No. 9 LSU at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. On Sunday, No. 6 Notre Dame takes on No. 10 Miami. The Irish are a road favorite.
MORE: Sporting News 2025 Preseason All-America Team
There are 13 games involving FBS teams in Week 1. There are more games with spreads of 22.5 points or more than single-digit spreads, which makes for a challenge.
Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Nine Top 25 teams play FCS opponents this week. We don't pick those games. We finished 144-146 (.497) against the spread and 216-74 (.745) straight up last season.
Here is a look at our record from Week 0.
Straight up: (2-2)
Against the spread: (1-3)
Here are our Week 1 predictions against the spread (odds according to Caesars)
Week 1 picks against the spread
Thursday, Aug. 28
No. 25 Boise State (-6) at South Florida (5:30 p.m., ESPN)
This is a huge early-season Group of 5 game featuring rising coaches Spencer Danielson and Alex Golesh. The Broncos no longer have Ashton Jeanty, and quarterback Maddux Madsen had a 59.5% completion percentage on the road last season. South Florida gave up 40 or more points six times last season. How improved is that defense? Boise State was 2-3 ATS as a road favorite last season.
Pick: Boise State wins 35-28 and COVERS the spread.
Final: South Florida 34, Boise State 7
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Saturday, Aug. 30
No. 24 Tennessee (-14) vs. Syracuse in Atlanta (12 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar will make his debut as the starter in the Aflac Kickoff Game. Syracuse will turn to Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli at quarterback. The Orange were 5-2 S/U as an underdog last season – an amazing trend that second-year coach Fran Brown will look to continue. The Orange have four transfers on the offensive line. How will they hold up against the Vols?
Pick: Tennessee wins 30-23 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (-2) (12 p.m., Fox)
Arch Manning will make his debut as a full-time starter at The Shoe, and the concern here is a rebuilt line that replaces four starters at a tough road venue. These teams combined to send 26 players to the 2025 NFL Draft, so which new starters will step up? Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is making his first start for the Buckeyes with a loaded receiver room that includes Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss. Ohio State has not lost a season opener since 1999. If Manning leads Texas – which is 1-6 S/U and 2-5 ATS as an underdog under Steve Sarkisian – to a victory here, then there will be no controlling the hype.
Pick: Ohio State wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
SN QB RANKINGS: Top 25 | Big Ten | SEC | Big 12 | ACC
Old Dominion at No. 20 Indiana (-22.5) (2:30 p.m., FS1)
What will Indiana do as an encore under second-year coach Curt Cignetti? The defense features several playmakers from last year's CFP team, including Aiden Fisher, Mikail Kamara and D'Angelo Ponds. Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza should settle in, too. The Hoosiers were 9-2 ATS as a favorite last season. The Monarchs threw a scare into South Carolina in Week 1 last season. Can they do it again?
Pick: Indiana wins 45-20 and COVERS the spread.
Nevada at No. 2 Penn State (-44.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount)
The Nittany Lions are loaded with an offense that returns quarterback Drew Allar and 1,000-yard rushers Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The defense features Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant. Nevada turns to Chubba Purdy – who played at Florida State and Nebraska – after a 3-10 season in 2024 under Jeff Choate. The Wolf Pack covered 20-plus point spreads against SMU and Boise State last season. The Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in non-conference games since 2022. It's tough to go against Penn State with the spread, especially if there is a late chance to cover. We're going to do it anyway.
Pick: Penn State wins 45-3 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Marshall at No. 5 Georgia (-39.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Bulldogs might be the least talked about returning SEC champion of the CFP era, and that's a scary thought. Gunner Stockton will settle in as the new starter, and the defense will look to return to its dominant form under Kirby Smart. Marshall could have as many as 18 new starters from the transfer portal. Tony Gibson will need some time here. The Bulldogs average 51 points per game against Group of 5 opponents the last two seasons. Can Marshall get more than one TD?
Pick: Georgia wins 52-7 and COVERS the spread.
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No. 8 Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State (3:30 p.m., ABC)
The Seminoles can erase last year's dreadful 2-10 season with a victory here. Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos – a Boston College transfer – had some big talk about the Crimson Tide this offseason. Ty Simpson makes his start for Alabama, and expect Ryan Williams to re-establish himself as an All-American wide receiver. Alabama finished 2-3 S/U on the road last season – but that included blowout victories at Wisconsin and LSU. A blowout here would not be ideal for FSU coach Mike Norvell. Weather could be a factor here.
Pick: Alabama wins 29-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Alabama belongs to Kalen DeBoer, which means pressure ramps up
UTSA at No. 19 Texas A&M (-22.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
UTSA could be a trendy long-shot upset pick in this game – but we're not quite there. The Aggies have a relentless running game around Marcel Reed, Le'Veon Moss and Amari Daniels. Those three combined to average 5.3 yards per carry last season. Texas beat UTSA 56-7 last season. The Aggies probably know that. Will the Roadrunners be able to hang around with quarterback Owen McCown?
Pick: Texas A&M wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson (-4) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
LSU hasn't won an opener since 2019. Clemson finished 0-3 against SEC schools last season. The pressure is on both sides, and NFL scouts will have a close eye on quarterbacks Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier. The line has ticked up a half-point, meaning there is not a lot of faith in LSU here. The Tigers are 5-5 S/U as an underdog under Brian Kelly. This could easily come down to a last-second field goal.
Pick: Clemson wins 30-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
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New Mexico at No. 14 Michigan (-36.5) (7:30 p.m., Peacock)
Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will be in the spotlight, but we're interested to see how dominant the running game is with Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall. Will that open up a passing attack that ranked 130th in the FBS with 129.1 yards per game. New Mexico first-year coach Jason Eck – who coached at Idaho the last three seasons – brought quarterback Jack Layne with him. This is a tough first test. The Wolverines were 1-3 ATS when favored by double digits last season.
Pick: Michigan wins 42-7 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
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Georgia State at No. 21 Ole Miss (-38) (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Pitt transfer Christian Veilleux leads Georgia State into a matchup with the Rebels, who feature new quarterback Austin Simmons. The Panthers allowed 33.8 points per game last season. Ole Miss is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games the last two seasons, and Lane Kiffin is never afraid to pour it on. That will give Simmons confidence heading into a Week 2 matchup at Kentucky.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 56-14 and COVERS the spread.
Sunday, Aug. 30
No. 13 South Carolina (-7.5) vs. Virginia Tech in Atlanta (3 p.m., ESPN)
The Gamecocks are a preseason darling with quarterback LaNorris Sellers, and Shane Beamer is up against the school his father Frank made famous. Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones battled through knee and toe injuries last season, and he had a 52.8% completion percentage against ranked teams. He'll need to be better than than if the Hokies want to pull an upset here. The Gamecocks were 2-2 ATS when favored by 10 points or less.
Pick: South Carolina wins 27-22 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 6 Notre Dame (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Notre Dame has lost six straight road games at Miami – the Irish's last road win in this series was in 1977. C.J. Carr – the five-star recruit and grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr – is on the spot here for Notre Dame. Keep an eye on how the Irish run the ball with Jeremiyah Love against the Hurricanes – which ranked 20th in the FBS in rush defense in 2024. Carson Beck – who was 24-3 as a starter at Georgia – makes his Miami debut, too. Notre Dame is 3-3 S/U on the road against ranked teams under Marcus Freeman. This is going to be a tight finish.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 24-21 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Carson Beck discusses Georgia transfer, fit at Miami