2025 has provided an unprecedented number of high-profile, desirable head coaching vacancies. One of the twelve open jobs was filled last week when James Franklin was hired by Virginia Tech.
The volume of open jobs and the names being floated for those jobs have revealed an arrogance around many of those programs. The ever-changing landscape of college football will adjust that thinking. It just won’t be immediate.
There has always been an egocentric attachment to programs and the people that run them or root for them. College football is unlike every pro league this country has. The structure is different, leagues, conferences and divisions are different and most importantly, how these programs view themselves is different.
The differences in college football and virtually any other American sport has lead to a mentality of overvaluing your program. Every fan of every team, no matter the level, views their team subjectively, that is not new. However, the open coaching jobs have revealed that the home team bias is getting out of control.
The college football hierarchy has levels
In no particular order, those open jobs are LSU, Penn State, Florida, Auburn, Stanford, UCLA, Arkansas, Oregon State, UAB and Colorado State. Yet those eleven jobs have led to conversations about the same 3-4 coaches. Lane Kiffin seems to be the ‘free agency prize’ if he’s willing to leave Ole Miss. Eli Drinkwitz from Missouri, Jon Sumrall from Tulane, and for some strange reason, Marcus Freeman from Notre Dame who seems steadfast that he’s not leaving.
While there are other names being floated, none are more consistent that the previous four. However, that’s four names for eleven jobs. In time, it will work itself out and each of those programs will hire someone to fill their vacancy. Yet the issue is one that predates the NIL era, the transfer portal or the college football playoff.
This mentality was likely born prior to the BCS era but was established as the way it is, during the BCS era. Pride and a sense of worth that completely creates a significant subjective bias. In an objective world, LSU, Florida and Auburn are probably the prize. Even that though, is based on this BCS bias.
In any given year over the last 25 plus years, there has always been a sense of Davids vs Goliaths. No one thinks that Colorado State in any way, shape or form would be expected to beat Georgia. Just like no one is going to put the UAB job over the Florida job. Much of that comes from a perception of a winning history, having a significant donor base or alumni, and being consistently at the top of national rankings or recruiting class rankings. Which has led to programs searching for coaches to reveal this bias.
The best example of this bias comes when we attempt to put these programs into tiers. For example, LSU and Notre Dame are on a different tier than Penn State and Auburn, which is on a different tier from UAB and Oregon State. Yet as these coaching candidates are being discussed, the local media and university personnel speaking on it all seem to believe they occupy the top tier.
NIL revenue is the new currency of college football
The issue is an understanding of the tiers. To hear some of these officials speak on their search, it would seem many believe the top tier includes the top ‘half’ of all Power 4 programs. Suggesting that LSU, Stanford and Oregon State are on the same level of competition, desirable location and resources.
The current landscape of college football, over time, will inevitably correct some of this thinking. The new currency in college football is no longer a winning history and reputation. In the current college football, currency is the new currency. The programs that can generate and grow operating budgets will be who wins the day. Budget wins recruiting, budget as we’re about to find out wins coaching hires and ultimately budgets will put teams in playoff contention.
NIL has literally changed the game. Players and coaches are less likely to pick a school they rooted for as a kid or because that program has NFL hall of famers. It will come down to who can spend the most and who can attract the best talent. Virtually all of that will come down to NIL budgets. Not tradition.
Programs like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, etc. Are likely to always be at the top of the list. Not because of tradition, but because those programs can and do create significant revenue and that is not likely to change in the NIL era.
An interesting example of this is Matt Rhule and Nebraska. For a few days, there were three tiers being discussed as if they were all equal. Would Matt Rhule leave Nebraska for Penn State? What transpired was a narrative that suggested that Penn State is not a big upgrade from Nebraska and is just as desirable a coaching job as Florida or LSU.
The system as constituted will adjust thinking over time
Several programs over the next few years seem to be headed towards frustration. Especially if any of these coaching candidates choose to stay where they are. If Kiffin, Drinkwitz and Sumrall all choose to stay where they are there will be coaching hiring chaos. Some of these programs aiming for the top tier coaching candidate as a perceived upgrade over who they fired are going to learn the hard way that not all noteworthy Power 4 teams are created equal.
The days of every top recruit with their eyes on Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia are nearing their end. They will undoubtedly continue to be competitive, but they'll have more teams around them operating at that level. NIL will create some level of parody provided programs get creative on how to generate additional revenue. Programs with storied history and plenty of trophies who do not prioritize NIL revenue will lose to programs with less history and success that are prioritizing NIL revenue.
It has been a new day in college football for some time now. However, the home team bias exhibited by most programs will naturally get corrected by how those programs choose to approach recruiting and winning. Programs that lean on history and refuse to be competitive in an NIL landscape are destined to fall behind. One can only hope this is a lesson learned sooner rather than later.
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