The California Golden Bears and the San Diego State Aztecs are set to clash in a non-conference matchup that, on paper, heavily favors the Bears. According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, Cal has a commanding 82.7% chance to come out on top and the numbers support that confidence.
Team records & recent performances
California (3-0)
The Golden Bears are off to a perfect start this season, notching convincing wins over Minnesota (27-14), Texas Southern (35-3), and Oregon State (34-15). Through three games, Cal has established itself as a balanced and efficient team, averaging 32 points per game while allowing just 10.7.
Their offense has moved the ball effectively both through the air and on the ground, while the defense has consistently shut down opposing attacks, even against Power Five competition. In all three wins, Cal has looked organized, disciplined, and unshaken, regardless of opponent.
San Diego State (1-1)
The Aztecs opened their season with a dominant 42-0 victory over Stony Brook, but came back down to earth in a 36-13 loss to Washington State. While they are averaging 27.5 points per game, their offensive numbers are somewhat misleading, as they are heavily boosted by the lopsided win over an FCS opponent.
Against Washington State, SDSU struggled to maintain drives and allowed too many explosive plays on defense. They'll need a much sharper performance across the board if they hope to keep pace with Cal.
Strength of schedule & context matters
While both teams have at least one blowout win, the level of competition has been vastly different. California has faced two Power Five teams and a mid-tier FCS opponent in Texas Southern. San Diego State’s win came against Stony Brook, a program from the Coastal Athletic Association (CAA), which competes in the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision), which is a tier below Cal and SDSU’s FBS level.
Given this, San Diego State’s win over Stony Brook isn’t a reliable benchmark. Their performance against Washington State is more telling and highlights the gap between where they are now and where Cal is trending.
Season leaders breakdown
California
True freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been a bright spot, throwing for 780 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just 1 interception on 71-of-106 passing. Running back Kendrick Raphael leads the ground attack with 201 rushing yards and a touchdown on 39 carries. In the receiving game, Trond Grizzell has been Denegal’s go-to target, pulling in 11 receptions for 175 yards and a score.
Defensively, TJ Bush Jr. has emerged as a pass-rushing threat with 2 sacks, while linebacker Luke Ferrelli leads the team with an impressive 27 tackles, anchoring a unit that’s looked fast and physical.
San Diego State
Quarterback Jayden Denegal has operated efficiently, completing 28-of-55 passes for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Lucky Sutton has chipped in with 188 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 38 carries. Receiver Jacob Bostick leads the team in receiving touchdowns with 6 catches for 101 yards and 2 TDs, giving Sagapolutele a reliable red-zone option.
On defense, August Salvati has recorded 1.5 sacks, and Tano Letuli has been an active presence at linebacker, contributing in both run and pass defense.
What to expect
This matchup looks favorable for California in nearly every key category from offensive balance and defensive execution to strength of schedule and momentum. The Bears have proven themselves against quality competition and come into this game with rhythm and confidence.
San Diego State, meanwhile, is still trying to find consistency, especially on defense. Unless the Aztecs can pressure Sagapolutele and force turnovers early, it’s hard to envision them pulling off the upset on the road.
With Cal playing at a high level and aiming to remain undefeated, this game could be another step in a breakout season for the Golden Bears (10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN).
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEWS:
- Deion Sanders buyout, contract details as Colorado Buffaloes coach
- Nick Saban on Browns' Derrick Henry diss: Try 'tackling his ass every day'
- The hard truth about Arch Manning's injury situation
- Oregon to debut Phil Knight 'Shoe Duck' tribute uniforms
- Miami makes $1.8 million decision to honor two football legends