Alabama, Notre Dame or Miami? Breaking down final College Football Playoff spot dilemma

Morgan Moriarty

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Alabama, Notre Dame or Miami? Breaking down final College Football Playoff spot dilemma image

Saturday's college football slate was headlined by a much-anticipated SEC Championship Game between No. 9 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia. In the end, however, the game didn’t live up to the hype. A blocked Alabama punt that set up a Georgia score helped UGA jump out to a halftime lead.

The Dawgs never looked back.

Georgia’s defense dominated in the first half, intercepting Ty Simpson and holding the Tide to just 70 total yards of offense and 1-for-3 on third down.

The second half wasn’t much better. Georgia added 14 more points, and Alabama’s early fourth-quarter touchdown was the only score the Tide managed. With the loss, Alabama falls to 10-3 on the season, and their poor showing puts them in real danger of missing the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Here’s a look at how Alabama’s resume compares to Miami and Notre Dame, and which teams have the best chance of making the Playoff on Sunday.

MORE: What BYU's loss means for the CFP bracket

Which teams in Alabama, Miami and Notre Dame will make the CFP?

It’s hard to say at this point, but Alabama’s loss in the SEC title game drops the Tide to 10-3 on the season, giving them one more loss than 10-2 Miami and Notre Dame. At the very least, that sets up serious debate. Here’s a comparison of all three teams’ resumes, factoring in win-loss record, strength of schedule, and best wins:

Criteria	Alabama	Notre Dame	Miami
W-L	10-3	10-2	10-2
SOS	11th	42nd	44th
SOR	8th	13th	14th
Best win	at No. 3 UGA	vs. No. 16 USC	vs. No. 10 ND

Let's take a closer look at each team's case for the 12-team field.

The case for Alabama

Alabama finished the season 10-3, with losses to Florida State in Week 1, Oklahoma, and Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The Tide also notched impressive wins over ranked opponents Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee.

While a three-loss team has never made the 12-team playoff (albeit in a limited sample size), two of Alabama’s losses came against playoff teams—Oklahoma and Georgia. The Tide also boast the best strength of schedule and strength of record, ranked 11th and 8th, respectively.

Alabama finished with negative rushing yards on Saturday, but the Tide were without star running back Jam Miller.

Another key factor is Alabama simply playing in the conference title game. The committee tends to value teams that qualify for their conference championship. The question now is: will the committee penalize Alabama for losing handily to a team it beat on the road earlier in the season? And if not, what is the point of playing in a conference title game?

MORE: Could Texas jump Alabama in final CFP rankings?

The case against Alabama

It's hard to imagine Saturday's game going any worse for the Tide and its playoff hopes. As if the 28-7 score wasn't glaring enough, Alabama just looked lifeless on offense. Take a look at some of these numbers, and tip your cap to Georgia's defense. Alabama's offense finished with:

209 yards of offense
-3 yards rushing (!)
23:08 time of possession
3-for-14 on third down, 1-for-3 on fourth down

Simpson, who has played well all season, looked completely out of sorts. Although it wasn't his worst game statistics-wise, he missed several throws, and the Georgia defense sacked him three times.

The committee has been swayed by conference title game results in years past. It's hard to blame them—there are far fewer games being played on a typical college football Saturday. Most games are spread out in their own windows, so committee members can zero in on those matchups. For most teams, it's the last impression they can make for the selection committee.

Unfortunately, the Tide's final impression wasn't a positive one. Yes, Alabama has had a great season, but it's hard to envision the committee having an overwhelming desire to put a three-loss Alabama team in after its disastrous showing in Atlanta.

The case for Miami

The Canes finished 10-2 this season, with a pair of losses — one to SMU on the road in overtime and another at home against Louisville. Miami had a chance to make the ACC title game, but thanks to some wonky conference tiebreaker scenarios, the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils are playing in that game instead.

One of Miami’s biggest wins came in Week 1, beating Notre Dame at home 27-24. The committee has Notre Dame in the 12-team field in the latest rankings, sitting at the No. 10 seed. The Canes also have wins over three other ranked opponents in USF, Florida State, and Pitt, although none of them are ranked by the CFP as of last week.

Miami would have played in the ACC title game against Virginia, but a five-way tie for second place sent Duke to Charlotte instead thanks to the Blue Devils’ combined win percentage of conference opponents. That’s out of Miami’s control, obviously.

On the field, this is one of the most talented rosters head coach Mario Cristobal has ever had. Quarterback Carson Beck has been playing quite well in recent weeks, and his go-to receiver Malachai Toney is an electric playmaker. He has 970 receiving yards with seven touchdowns.

Defensively, Miami allows just 13.8 points per game, good for sixth nationally. Defensive linemen Ruben Bain and Ahmad Moten Sr. Have combined for nine sacks this season. The offense ranks 18th according to ESPN SP+, 10th on defense.

MORE: The reason why Maimi doesn't have its own football stadium

The case against Miami

On the other hand, if Miami hadn't lost to both SMU and Louisville, it wouldn't have to worry about being left out of the playoff. Miami also would have easily qualified for the ACC title game with just one conference loss, and wouldn't have had to hope the ACC tiebreaker scenarios worked out for them. Beck threw game-sealing interceptions in both of those losses, as well.

The other thing working against Miami is the fact that the Canes just did not play this weekend. In years past, we've seen the committee favor teams that played and were able to leave a lasting impression on the committee.

Most notably, Ohio State beating Wisconsin 59-0 in 2014 in the Big Ten title game helped the Buckeyes get a bid over TCU and Baylor, neither of which played in conference title games. (Although the Big 12 later adopted a title game, thanks to this exact reason.)

In 2023, Alabama snapping Georgia's 24-game win streak in the SEC Championship game helped the Tide edge out Florida State, which lost its star quarterback. The good news is that Alabama's blowout loss to Georgia doesn't exactly leave a lasting positive impression. But the Tide still played on Saturday, whereas Miami did not.

The case for Notre Dame

Speaking of 10-2 teams, the Fighting Irish are one of the best two-loss squads in the country. Notre Dame opened the season with two straight losses to Miami and Texas A&M. The 11-1 Aggies are a sure bet to earn a spot in the playoff, and losing to Miami on the road, when the Canes also have a chance at the playoff, isn’t exactly a bad loss either.

Since those two defeats, the Irish have won 10 straight games, outscoring opponents 440-143. Two of those wins came over ranked teams in USC and Pitt, although both were left out of the most recent CFP rankings.

The Irish have a top-20 rushing offense nationally with star Jeremiyah Love in the backfield, totaling 1,372 yards with 18 touchdowns on the year. Defensively, they allow just 17.6 points per game, good for 13th in the nation. Per SP+, the offense ranks seventh overall, with the defense ranking 11th.

The case against Notre Dame

Alabama's loss to the Dawgs does help Notre Dame's chances some, but the Irish aren't clearly in just yet. The big knock against the Irish is the fact that they don't play in a conference. As a result, Notre Dame's quality of opponents comes into question. While ND's 10-game win streak is wildly impressive, the combined records of its opponents is just 75-68.

ND not playing in a conference also resulted in the Irish sitting at home on conference championship weekend.

MORE: Why Notre Dame refuses to join a football conference

When is the College Football Playoff bracket announced?

The CFP bracket will be revealed live on Sunday, Dec. 7 at Noon ET. ESPN's CFP selection show will reveal the 12-team bracket, with several other bowl games set to be announced on Sunday as well.